Pune: Despite predicting a warmer March with heat-waves like conditions to prevail in most parts of the country by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), interestingly, the month of March saw excess rainfall making it 3rd highest in terms of March rains from 1901.
The month of March in 2022 was the highest warming month and ranked 1st while this year it ranked 39 in terms of weather conditions.
Similarly, the month of March saw 100 rainfall events in the last seven years with 2018 having 36, 2019-six, 2020—44, 2021-13, 2022-13 and 2023—100. However, Mrityunjay Mohpatra, Director general, IMD said, “no. of rain stations have increased and thus the increase in the rainfall events can also be attributed to it”.
IMD released its seasonal forecast for the months of April to June. While providing a summary of March weather, Mohpatra said, “IMD had predicted a warmer March. First half of the month saw a rising trend, however due to western disturbances, the month had normal to below normal temperatures”.
“As many as seven western disturbances, east-west trough at lower levels from Rajasthan, persistence of trough/wind discontinuity from southern peninsular parts to east India contributed towards the March weather”, he said.
Normal to above normal rainfall was seen in most parts of the country but below normal rainfall was recorded in north-west and north eastern parts”, he said that IMD was 70% correct in its prediction.
Forecast for April to June
The month will see above normal maximum temperatures except in southern peninsular and some parts of western central India where normal to below normal temperatures are very likely. Similarly, the minimum temperature would be normal to above normal over most parts of the country except in North-east.
Heat-waves in April
Most parts of central India, Eastern India and north west India would experience the heatwaves. The states like Bihar, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Gujurath, West Bengal, North Chhattisgarh, Punjab, Haryana while the second half of the month has no alarming heat-wave conditions predicted. The rainfall for this month would be on average 88 to 112%.
El-Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole
Various models across the globe have been predicting that this year would turn out to be an El-Nino year. Understanding El-Nino is important for India as it largely affects the Indian south-west monsoon. Being an agrarian economy, monsoon plays a pivotal role.
However, Bhan said that it will be too early to say anything about El-Nino conditions during monsoon months. He said, “currently, the EL-Nino conditions are neutral and they might become active from July to September and fall during the fall i.e October to December”.
He also said that El-Nino is not the only parameter for monsoon. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IO) conditions are positive and when the IOD is positive we get good rains. Nearly 60% times it is seen that the rains have been affected during El-Nino years.
