The Indian Meteorological Department has issued a warning that Cyclone Mocha, which is currently forming over the Bay of Bengal, is expected to intensify into a highly intense storm by Friday, May 12. The cyclone is predicted to bring winds with speeds reaching up to 130 kmph. However, the MET department has predicted that Cyclone Mocha will not hit the Indian coastline.
Formation and trajectory
Initially, Cyclone Mocha was identified as a well-marked low-pressure area, which developed into a depression on Tuesday evening, bringing winds ranging from 45 to 55 kmph and gusts of up to 65 kmph over the south-east Bay of Bengal, according to the India Meteorological Department.
The weather system is expected to progress in a north-northwest direction, gradually gaining strength and transitioning into a cyclonic storm over the same region by May 10 evening. Continuing on its trajectory, it will further intensify and become a severe cyclonic storm by the morning of May 11th, and eventually develop into a very severe cyclonic storm by the midnight of May 11, over the southeastern and adjacent central Bay of Bengal.
Expected landfall and impact
The weather system is likely to gradually change course, moving in a north-northeast direction. It is anticipated to make landfall between Cox’s Bazar (Bangladesh) and Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) during the late morning hours of May 14, 2023.
The system is projected to further intensify and transform into a deep depression by 5:30 am on Wednesday. Within the next 12 hours, it is anticipated to evolve into Cyclone Mocha, with wind speeds ranging from 80 to 90 kmph and gusts of up to 100 kmph.
Rainfall warnings
The Indian Meteorological Department has issued rainfall warnings for several regions. In the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, rainfall is expected at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places until May 11.
Heavy rainfall at isolated places over the Andaman Islands is likely on May 12. In Tripura and Mizoram, rainfall is anticipated at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places on May 13 and heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places on May 14. In Nagaland, Manipur, and south Assam, rainfall is predicted at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places on May 14.
