BHOPAL: Political analysts believe that the BJP and the Congress may equally share the 28 Assembly constituencies which voted to elect their new MLAs on November 3. The counting in all the constituencies is scheduled for November 10 and the results will be out the same day by the afternoon.
Analysts of the political scene and poll-watchers say that neither of the two rivals is likely to sweep the bye-polls.
The Congress has made ‘back-stabbing’ by its turncoats MLAs, who switched their loyalties to the BJP in the footsteps of Jyotiraditya Scindia, its key poll plank. As always, caste factor would also play a key role. The BJP is banking on the ‘good work’ done by its governments in the past 15 years.
Of the 28 constituencies, 16 are in the Gwalior-Chambal region. Political analysts say that of the five constituencies in the Morena district – two may go to the Congress two, to the BJP and one for BSP. The Congress may annex Sumaoli, Dimni and Ambah while Joura to BJP and Morena had caught in triangular fight and may go to the BSP.
In Bhind, Mehgaon may fall into the BJP kitty and Gohad has fixed in a close fight.
In Gwalior district, bye-elections were held in two constituencies. Of them, Gwalior may go the BJP and the Congress may emerge victorious in the Gwalior East, but the Dabra seat has became uncertain due to close fight.
In Bhander constituency in Datia district, the contest is said to too close to make any prediction possible.
In Shivpuri, Karera may go the Congress way while Pohri may be won by the BJP. The sole seat in Guna district – Bamhori – may return the BJP candidate.
In Ashok Nagar constituency of Ashok Nagar district, the Congress candidate is at comfortable situation. The same is true of the Mungaoli constituency in the same district.
In the Sagar district of the Bundelkhand region, the Surkhi constituency is witnessing a very close contest between Govind Singh Rajput of the BJP and Parul Sahu of the BJP. The two were face to face in the 2018 elections, too. However, at that time, Rajput was the Congress candidate while Sahu was the BJP nominee.
The Bada Malhera constituency in Chhatarpur district is likely to be annexed by the BJP, while there a close contest between the two parties in Anuppur constituency of Anuppur district.
The Sanchi seat in Raisen district is in close contest, thanks, mainly due to sabotage by the local BJP heavyweights, including a senior former minister.
The voters of Biaora constituency in Rajgarh district may prefer the BJP. The same is said to be true about the Hatpipliya constituency in Dewas. In Dhar, the Badnawar seat may go the BJP way.
There is close contest in Sanwer seat in Indore district but BJP finds themselves in comfortable situation, while the Agar constituency in Agar-Malwa district may send the Congress nominee to the Vidhan Sabha.
The Nepanagar (Burhanpur), Mandhata (Khandwa constituencies are having BJP flavour, but the Suvasra (Mandsaur) is in close fight.