While riding high on the victory crest in three north east states, Bharatiya Janata Party is poised to make its southward journey again to retain Karnataka hence it will embark upon the ‘Charisma’ of Narender Modi ,prime minister though it will be pitted against the not ‘so good image’ of Bomai-BJP coalition government besides several burning issues like Anti-incumbency factor, high inflation, unemployment problem, lucrative promises being made by Congress ,etc.
In this backdrop, BJP has put the prestige of prime minister Narender Modi and B.S. Yeddyurappa, an octogenarian leader at stake as outcome of Karnataka polls will have its direct bearing on ensuing three assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh besides impacting the 2024 parliamentary elections.High command has been successful in engineering defections from Congress like A.K.Antony’s son Anil K Antony which is aimed at placating the Christian community besides enhancing its outreach to these minorities to improve its prospects in polls. But Amul versus Karnataka Milk Federation ‘s brand ,Nandini has been given new twist by Congress which is describing it as an attack on Karnataka’s Pride by center.
BJP highly dependent upon the Modi 'charisma' as a vote catcher
BJP is banking upon the vote catching capability of Modi and influence of former CM, Yeddyurappa who has been reined in by nominating him as a member of parliamentary board and central election committee though he has been humiliated in the past when he was twice divested of his CM’s chair.PM Modi tried to placate Yeddyurappa when he described him as one of the most experienced leaders who has devoted his life for the welfare of farmers and poor people.
Yeddyurappa’s community, Lingayat constitutes 17% of the population in Karnataka, mostly in northern areas, hence a belated attempt to woo the community has been made by BJP by appeasing this stalwart who will be a star campaigner but not CM candidate. BJP will have to focus on Southern Karnataka (Mysore region) as it has done well in other regions and it improved significantly in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. But the saffron party is organizationally very strong and has no dearth of resources which gets strengthened owing to RSS machinery. BJP’s support of majority of Lingayat ‘MUTTS’ and agenda of ‘Love Jehad’, mobilization of Hindu vote bank through polarization etc. form the strong weapons to win the elections.
BJP's ascendancy in south depends upon success in Karnataka
It is a hard fact that BJP has been a rising force in central, west and northern states in India during the post Mandir era. BJP formed government in Karnataka in 2008 and 2018 but with the help of partners hence it is vying to emerge independently in Karnataka which may be replicated in Maharashtra also in future. RSS has been working in coastal Karnataka and BJP got fillip to expand its footprints in other regions except southern Karnataka (Mysore region) which needs to be improved as it is stronghold of JD(S) and Congress. BJP had tremendously improved its performance in Karnataka in Lok Sabha pols in 2019 and it got 40 percent of the votes which was much than assembly polls held in 2018. Karnataka has got 224-member assembly spanning six regions like Bengaluru, Central, Coastal, Hyderabad-Karnataka, Mumbai-Karnataka and Southern Karnataka. BJP has been comfortable in coastal Karnataka and polled 51 % votes in 2018 while statewide share was 36%.In central Karnataka, BJP won 24 out of 35 seats and got 43 percent votes with strike rate of 70% but it needs to deliver better in Sothern Karnataka to win more seats.
BJP tries to retain Karnataka through social engineering
In the hope of creating pro Hindu sentiments, BJP-Bomai government scrapped 4% quota of Muslims who will be moved to 10 % weaker section (EWS) category hence now they will have to compete with Brahmins, Mudaliyars, Jains, Vysyas and others .It may have impact on existing EWS castes and adversely affect the interests of the Muslims. Experts say that it may also have a negative impact on those castes Banjara Community which have been hit due to this new caste rejig hence they were lying dormant so far. Analysis say that the Bomai government had raised the quota for SCs from 15 % to 17 %and STs from 5 percent to 7 percent in October,2022 to improve its chances on the basis of the social engineering formula. Then, another attempt was made last Friday when it withdrew the 4 % Muslim quota and it would be shared between the powerful Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities which until now enjoyed five percent and four percent sub quotas respectively within the OBC segment.
How did Lingayat move away from Congress?
It is the Yeddyurappa phenomenon which brought sea change in the entire caste structure in Karnataka and it benefited BJP in a big way. Rajeev Gandhi’s humiliating and ruthless action of dismissal of Veerendra Patil government proved disaster for congress which was reduced to 36 seats from 179 seats in 1994 as the Lingatyat community moved away from the party. BJP increased its vote percentage from 4% to 17 % which was primarily due to Lingayat community and party made Yeddyurappa as it faces but an identical blunder was committed by BJP high command which removed him from chief minister’s post over corruption hence he formed his own party Karnataka Janata Party(KJP) and damaged BJP in several constituencies in 2013 as vote got split which enabled BJP to win 40 seats as compared to 110 in 2008 .BJP share dipped to 33.86 % to 19.95 % and Yeddyurappa’s party corned 9.8%. Now BJP trio comprising of Modi-Shah-Nadda has reigned in Lingayat supremo, Yeddyurappa and expect to change the dynamics of Karnataka assembly elections.
Game changer for Congress
Bomai -BJP government’s ‘controversial image’ has given hope to congress to register its victory after losing three eastern states including Tripura, Megahalya and Nagaland which may prove a ‘Game Changer’ for the beleaguered party at central level also. But if BJP wins against all odds in the first southern state then it will be encouraged as it is bound to add to its aggressive posture which will help it in state elections as well as 2024. BJP had won 104 seats in the house of 224 in 2018 assembly elections in
Karnataka and toppled Congress-Janata dal (secular) coalition in June,2020 barely after 15 months as 16 MLAs of ruling alliance resigned which brought Bomai at the helm of affairs in the state.
Congress is seriously eyeing Karnataka
The Think Tank of Congress is optimist to turn the tables on BJP primarily due to several factors which include skyrocketing prices of essential commodities, unemployment problem, weakening of democratic setup, misuse of investigating agencies, women atrocities, etc. Second, unlike in the past, Congress general secretary incharge of Karnataka polls, Randeep Surjewala and his team had been deployed by high command well on time who have been working hard and succeeded in browbeating BJP
by releasing the first list of 124 candidates on March 24 which was an unbelievable development. Third, Congress has described its two guarantees of Grih Jyoti – 200 units of electricity free for every household and Grih Laxmi – Rs 2,000 cash transfer every month to every household as genuine promises to give relief to these two deserving sections of the society. Surjewala hit hard against the ruling party and felt that CM Bommai, Power Minister and every BJP leader were panic-stricken as they must be scared of the popularity of the first two guarantees of the Karnataka Congress. Fourth, Congress is confident about the sympathy which will be generated from Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification from Lok Sabha and other ‘excesses’ being committed by the NDA government. To derive political mileage, Rahul will kickstart a campaign from Kolar in Karnataka from April 5 -the same place where he delivered a speech which led to his two-year conviction by Surat court. Fifth, Congress expects the impact of Rahul’s Bharat Jodo Yatra as he had raised all issues relating to every section of the society including common people, youths, women etc.Sixth, Congress is trying to underplay the defections of some leaders from the party like Antony’s son and focusing on exploiting very sensitive issue of Amul versus Nandini which is being project as an attempt of center to diminish the identity of local brand thereby hurting the pride of people of Karnataka.
Finally, Congress, however, will have to sort out the issues of infighting in organization, a tussle for CM’s post between Siddaramaiah, opposition leader and Shiv Kumar, countering the communal agenda of BJP, caste equations and distribution of tickets.
Aam Aadmi Party had contested 29 seats in 2018 and lost deposits in all. Now AAP may act as a vote cutter in Karnataka if the Delhi CM decides to field candidates in Bangalore and around despite zero percent chances of success?
On the other hand, JD(S) and Congress combined took the lead over BJP when the first list was announced which has given head start to those who got the tickets.
Experts believe that it is do and die for BJP and Congress both as final results will have an impact on ensuing three state assembly polls and parliamentary polls in 2024.Karnataka is dubbed as first semifinal and rest three will be fought in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh which will be influenced owing to the outcome of Karnataka polls hence it assumes a lot of significance and relevance from national perspective.
(Writer is political analyst and senior journalist based in Shimla)
