Pakistan is poised to hold its much-awaited general elections on Thursday, February 8. The outcome of these elections will determine the formation of a new government, providing a potential solution to the country's ongoing crisis for the next five years.
As a parliamentary democracy, Pakistan is gearing up for elections in both the federal legislature and four state assemblies. In the federal legislature, 44 political parties are fielding 5,121 candidates, while in the state legislatures, there are a total of 12,695 candidates running for office.
Out of Pakistan's total population of 241 million, 128 million individuals, who are of voting age (18 years and above), are eligible to cast their votes.
What has transpired before elections in Pakistan?
Pakistan's president dissolved the National Assembly on August 9, 2023, signaling the start of preparations for the forthcoming general election.
Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif returned to the country on October 21, 2023, after four years of self-imposed exile abroad to avoid imprisonment on corruption charges. Upon his return, his convictions and sentences were overturned following an appeal.
A poll campaign video released by Nawaz Sharif's PML-N:
Meanwhile former PM Imran Khan has been imprisoned in several criminal cases, making his return to the top post impossible.
Pakistan's election oversight body postponed parliamentary elections for the second time on November 2, 2023. Initially scheduled for November and later pushed to the last week of January, the elections are now slated to occur on February 8.
How do elections work in Pakistan?
On election day, voters will elect two representatives for their constituency - one for the federal legislature and the other for the provincial assembly. There are 5,121 candidates competing for seats in the federal legislature and 12,695 candidates for provincial assembly seats. Unofficial results are expected to start coming in on the same night, providing a clear indication of the winners by early Friday morning. Official results will likely be announced by Election Commission officers on Friday.
The National Assembly comprises 336 seats, with 266 determined through direct voting on polling day. Additionally, 70 reserved seats are allocated - 60 for women and 10 for non-Muslims - based on each party's strength in the assembly. Successful candidates become members of the National Assembly, with independent candidates having the option to join any party after the elections.
After its formation, the National Assembly conducts a parliamentary vote to select a leader of the house, who then becomes the prime minister. A candidate must secure a simple majority in the house, meaning the support of at least 169 members.
Once a prime ministerial candidate wins the vote in the National Assembly, they are sworn in as prime minister. The new prime minister appoints cabinet ministers, who together form the federal government.
A similar process occurs at the provincial level to elect a chief minister and establish a provincial government.
Who are major contenders in race?
Pakistan's political landscape is largely controlled by three prominent parties: the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).
The PML-N is currently positioned as the leading competitor in the electoral race, spearheaded by two former prime ministers, Nawaz Sharif and his younger brother, Shehbaz Sharif.
The Pakistan People's Party (PPP), aligned with the PML-N, is led by Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari and commands a strong support base in southern Pakistan. According to the Associated Press (AP), while Bilawal may lack the popularity to secure enough votes to become prime minister, he could potentially be part of a coalition government led by Sharif.
Imran Khan, the founder of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), is absent from the political arena this term due to being convicted on four criminal charges, three of which were issued last week, rendering him ineligible to contest elections or hold public office. He has been sentenced to serve concurrent terms of three, 10, 14, and seven years, and faces over 150 additional legal cases. Khan's party alleges unfair treatment, contending that they are not given a fair opportunity to campaign.
Although the Pakistani military is not officially participating in the elections, it wields significant influence behind the scenes. It is widely recognized that the country's army has governed for a substantial portion of its democratic history and has influenced government decisions on numerous occasions.
Who could win Pakistan elections?
According to AP, the majority of Pakistani citizens feel disheartened after enduring years of political turmoil without witnessing any improvement in their living conditions. They express doubt regarding the possibility of any significant change following the upcoming election.
The return of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif last year and his swift exoneration upon arrival, allowing him to pursue a fourth term in office, stands in stark contrast to the legal hurdles faced by his opponent, Imran Khan. Sharif remains widely popular, and many anticipate his victory.
The foreign ministry has announced the presence of 92 international election observers, including representatives from the European Union and various foreign embassies. However, rights groups have cautioned against expecting a fair and transparent election.
The ousting of Khan in 2022 has heightened anti-establishment feelings, potentially leading to decreased voter participation, which in turn would erode the credibility of the election.
