Mumbai: Mumbai seems to be gaining ground in its nearly three-month battle with coronavirus, as is reflected in the recovery rate of patients, which has increased by 31.50 per cent in the last 10 days, while the rate at which it is adding new cases is 19 per cent. Health experts have attributed this to the early diagnosis of the SARS-Cov-2 virus and citizens adhering to social distancing norms. Further, said civic officials, the recovery rate of Mumbai and Maharashtra is higher than that of other states.
According to the BMC data, until June 13, 25,947 patients had recovered, and this number increased to 34,121 on June 22, despite the number of cases having increased to 67,635 from the 56,831 reported on June 13.
Earlier, it was speculated that cases in Mumbai would peak in the last week of May, at 75,000. But by May-end the city had registered only 39,444 cases and the tally touched 67,635 on June 22. Now, it is being predicted the city will witness a second peak in July.
Civic officials said they had been expecting over 3,000 cases a day by the first week of June. But the current average of cases is between 1,000 and 1,400, with two instances when less than 1,000 cases were reported, an indication that the recovery rate is improving and just over a thousand new cases are emerging each day. “However, it would be too early to say we are out of the woods, merely going by the current trend of cases and the recovery rate. But it is indeed good news for Mumbai, as in the last 10 days, the recovery rate has increased by 31.50 per cent,” said an official. “However, considering Unlock 1.0 and the monsoon, we could see a new wave. So, we must continue to remain alert,” he cautioned.
The city’s case doubling rate now stands at 39 days, as compared to 13 in the first week of May. However, the weekly growth rate of the number of new cases has dropped to 1.88 per cent from 5 per cent in May.
Dr Sanjay Oak, head of the taskforce formed by the state government said there has been a robust improvement in recovery rate of patients. “It is at 50 per cent and we want it to touch 70 per cent by month-end. With the Drug Controller General of India’s approval to use newer antiviral drugs like Remdesivir and Favipiravir, we are confident we can achieve the target,” he said.
Infectious diseases expert Dr Om Shrivastava, who is also a member of the task force, said the recovery rate was good, as people are being diagnosed earlier and now, hospitals are getting mild to moderate cases, which they are able to treat with success.
“Though the recovery rate for Mumbai has increased, we need to be alert as monsoon will be at its peak in July and that time, cases might increase if citizens step out or fail to follow social distancing. I would urge citizens to stay home unless it's an emergency, to avoid contracting water-borne diseases,” he said.