Mumbai: The Dawood Ibrahim gang is convinced that the Narendra Modi government will score a hat-trick. D Company controls Mumbai’s satta bazaar, which has a turnover of a few thousand crore rupees, and the betting trends are pointing at the return of Modi, albeit with a reduced margin.
The odds on the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) forming the next government is 1:1, which means on every rupee you bet you will get a return of Rs1. The odds on the INDIA alliance forming the government is 1:9, which means that the chances of the opposition combine winning are extremely slim.
Even though punters had predicted at the start of the first phase of voting on April 19 that the ruling NDA would comfortably get about 360 seats, on the eve of the seventh and last phase scheduled for June 1, they have pared it down to 306, which nevertheless implies that the saffron coalition will remain in the saddle for the third term. In any case, the BJP’s claim of 400-plus seats appears to be vastly overestimated.
The reduced number is principally because of the expectation that the BJP’s performance in the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, which has a whopping 80 seats, Rajasthan and Bihar won’t be as high as claimed by the party. The Congress and the Samajwadi Party are expected to spring surprises in quite a few seats in UP and other states. The BJP is expected to bag 54 seats in UP, which is less than its 2019 tally of 62. Overall, this betting market expects the BJP-led NDA to win 306 seats and projects the Congress to win 55 to 65 seats.
In Maharashtra the satta bazaar expects the ruling Mahayuti to bag 30 of the 48 seats. This is less than the expectation of the ruling coalition. The Shiv Sena (UBT) is likely to bag the maximum number of seats for the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).
Interestingly, the Rajasthan-based Phalodi betting bazaar is also predicting a third term for the Modi sarkar. The satta bazaar had earlier projected 270 to 280 seats for the BJP following the second phase of elections. At the time, it was estimated that the Congress could win 70-80 seats.
The Phalodi bazaar had on April 19 said the BJP alone would win over 300 seats. After the first two phases, its projections fell to around 290. In its latest estimate, the Phalodi bazaar continues to predict less than 300 seats for the BJP while the INDIA bloc tally is projected between 80 and 95 seats.
According to Phalodi bazaar, the BJP is set to face a relative blow in UP where it is expected to win only 55 to 65 seats (of the 80). The Congress and the Samajwadi Party, on the other hand, are expected to win 15-25 seats in the state despite severe setbacks in the 2014 and 2019 elections. It appears that the construction of the temple at Ayodhya may not yield the political dividend the BJP was expecting.
Apart from UP the punters’ focus is also on other states like Maharashtra, West Bengal, Odisha and Bihar. While the BJP improved its tally significantly in West Bengal, winning 16 of 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state, it is expected to significantly improve its tally this time around. Bihar and Maharashtra, with 40 and 48 seats, respectively, do not give a clear picture of the internal political turmoil.
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who masterminded the formation of the INDIA bloc, himself has defected to the BJP, while in Maharashtra the splits in the Shiv Sena and NCP have complicated the situation. Phalodi bazaar is not gung ho about the performance of the ruling Mahayuti even though it is expected to bag 30 of the 48 seats.
