CARE Ratings in its report has estimated that the potential loss of gross value added (GVA) for Maharashtra would be Rs 39,770 crore due to the mini lockdown. Further, the lockdown to shave off 0.3% growth.
‘’Out of the projected Rs 137.8 lakh crore of GVA at the country level that we projected for FY22, Maharashtra would account for around Rs 20.7 lakh crore which will now decline by around 2% due to this lockdown. This loss of income is based on the relative share of Maharashtra in the various sectors and the one-month impact of closedown/ restrictions on them,’’ said CARE Ratings.
The assumptions of loss of output would vary between 10-50% for the sub-sectors depending on the extent to which their GVA would be affected due to the lockdown. This will lower India’s GVA growth to 9.92% for FY22 and subsequently GDP growth to 10.7-10.9% under ceteris paribus conditions meaning thereby other states function in a normal manner.
If the impact of other state lockdowns are added there could be further downward the pressure of another 0.1-0.2%. According to the report, the major services will be operative to a very limited extent and would vary between 0-40% in industries like entertainment, tourism, hospitality, retail trade (brick and mortar).
Shops and establishments which deal with nonessentials will also find their business impacted due to the new restrictions. Many of these businesses were already functioning under restrictions and were yet to attain the pre-pandemic scale of operations. The limited five-day week model would come in the way of the growth of even the nonservices sector. As movement of people have been curtailed to a large extent, overall consumer demand would also get impacted affecting certain segments in manufacturing Further, less activity in most segments will affect even power consumption and hence the overall production of electricity.
While construction activity is to continue with SOPs in place, the the pace is expected to slow down to an extent and new projects would not be taken up because of the uncertainty.