After Uddhav Thackeray vacates Varsha, here are possible scenarios of what might happen

Sanjay JogUpdated: Thursday, June 23, 2022, 07:26 AM IST
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As political crisis in Maharashtra deepens, here are possible scenarios of what might happen | Photo: Twitter

Mumbai: If the present political crisis continues in the wake of rebellion by veteran Shiv Sena minister Eknath Shinde and other legislators, multiple scenarios are being discussed. If Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray resigns realising that he has lost the support of majority of party’s 55 legislators and independents and smaller parties, BJP, which is waiting in the wings, will surface and thereafter Team Shinde will join hands with it either by its merger or as a separate group to form a new government in the state.

Another option is that the Maha Vikas Aghadi government may explore the option of recommending a dissolution of state Assembly to the Governor although it is not binding on the latter to follow it. The state cabinet, which met on Wednesday, did not recommend dissolution of the state assembly as hinted by Shiv Sena MP Sanjay Raut in his tweet in the morning.

On the other hand, the Governor may put the assembly under suspended animation giving enough time for rebel leaders to shore up numbers to avoid action under anti-defection law. As per the Constitutional experts, Team Shinde should have a strength of 36 of the total 55 legislators of Shiv Sena in the state assembly (which is 2/3 of the total strength) to avoid action as per the provisions of the anti-defection law. In such a scenario, after Team Shinde submits a letter to the Speaker with a copy to the Governor it will be recognised as the main legislative party against the present legislative party with a claim of support of 16 legislators.

Shinde has claimed that over 46 legislators are together and additional 10 including independents may join to cross the legal and legislative hurdles. This will pave the way for either to associate or merge with BJP to form the new government. This will help BJP to easily prove the majority by crossing the halfway mark of 144.

Further, if the crisis deepens then BJP will step in and urge the Governor to ask the Thackeray-led government to prove its majority on the floor of house and before that Shinde will submit a list of legislators arguing his group is the real Shiv Sena legislature party with majority of legislators against the Thackeray-led Sena. Thackeray, who has offered to step down as CM for another Shiv Sainik, may face the confidence motion debate and before putting it for vote will head for Raj Bhavan to submit his resignation. Otherwise, Thackeray will not face the confidence motion but step down that will pave the way for the Governor to invite BJP to form the government and prove its majority on the floor of the house.

Lastly, the Governor's rule will be put in place in the wake of paucity of numbers till the fresh elections are announced. However, there is no clarity yet but both MVA and BJP are discussing it in their internal meetings. MVA sources hinted that BJP may expect state assembly elections to be held along with Gujarat slated for the end of the year. However, a section of BJP claimed that it was not necessary as the party along with Team Shinde will soon form the government.

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