London: Britain’s bookmakers seemed to be strengthening in their conviction that the UK will not opt out of the EU in the referendum today, even as most of the opinion polls have indicated it to be a too-close-to-call situation.
The EU referendum has broken all betting records with 100 million pounds expected to be wagered by the time polling booths close across the UK late tonight, with the Remain camp holding on to a firm lead. Remain has been the odds-on favourite with the bookies ever since the date of the referendum was announced by British Prime Minister David Cameron in February. They may have slashed their odds on a ‘Brexit’ win last month but over the last week they have once again hiked their anti-Brexit predictions to as much 2/9, implying an 82 per cent chance of victory for Remain.
“I would be absolutely flabbergasted if the UK electorate vote to leave the EU,” said a spokesperson for online betting exchange Betfair.
With opinion polls not the most reliable since they wrongly predicted a hung Parliament in the 2015 General Election, gambling firms are seen as a better indicator of voting outcomes as people are seen to be backing their voting prospects with their own money.
The bookies had famously correctly predicted the results in Scottish referendum in 2014, giving the independence camp no chance of victory while surveys had once again indicated a knife-edge poll.
“This is the biggest non-sporting event the bookmaking industry has ever seen… the EU referendum has overtaken last year’s General Election and the Scottish independence referendum as the largest political betting event of all time,” said a spokesperson for Ladbrokes, one of the UK’s leading bookmaker firms. “I still think ‘Remain’ are the more likely winners, but there’s enough uncertainty in this vote to make me think the outsiders have a better chance than the odds imply,” Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at the firm, wrote in ‘The Daily Telegraph’.
Bookmaker William Hill said it had taken bets worth 20 million pounds and was offering a 76 per cent chance of “Remain”.
“The stage is set for the busiest political betting day in history,” a spokesperson said. However, none of the big bookmakers have said they would make large losses on either result. As voting in the referendum enters its final hours, the focus will also be on the margin of victory for Remain, with between 50.01 and 55 per cent the favourite on the vote percentage market.
