Even as the high-octane campaign for the last lap of UP Assembly elections meandered to a close on Saturday, all political parties made a last-ditch effort to give their best shot, as Purvanchal is considered to be the bellwether region of the State.
While the ruling BJP is pulling out all stops to retain its bastion, its main contender, the Samajwadi Party (SP), has made an aggressive push to regain the constituencies it won in the 2012 Assembly elections.
This phase will also be a litmus test for allies on both the sides -- from Anupriya Patel to Om Prakash Rajbhar. The BJP had surprised everyone with its 2017 tally. Though, the Modi wave was surely discernible then, but a jump of 265 seats (312 seats from 47 in 2012) with a whopping swing of 24.67% (from 15% to 39.67%), confining the combined might of the main opposition Samajwadi Party and Congress to just 54 seats (47+7), was something that most pollsters and psephologists failed to predict. The BSP was third with just 19 seats.
Looking closely at 2017 numbers gives a clear idea of how big a win it was for the BJP. Riding on Modi wave, the BJP, along with its allies, won 222 seats by a margin of 20,000 or more votes. But in the absence of a clear wave this time and a single narrative, the seat-to-seat dynamic will take these polls to the wire.
Both BJP and SP are claiming they have an edge so far. “Voters will vote on issues. The election will be issue driven. The BJP had promised to double farmer’s income, control inflation, provide jobs to the youth, etc. On the contrary, it took away jobs, it isn’t paying even the MSP for wheat, paddy, etc., cane farmers are not being paid their dues on time, ‘chhutta jaanwar’ (stray cattle) is destroying their crops. The BJP will face the wrath of the voters and the Samajwadi Party alliance will form the government with over 300 seats,” said Shivpal Yadav (brother of Mulayam Singh Yadav) when the FPJ contacted him.
The key issues in the state, on which Samajwadi Party is hoping to capitalise, are stray cattle, free electricity for domestic users, Old Pension Scheme (which got a lot of traction from government employees), generation of employment, etc…
The BJP, in turn, is banking on the larger than life image of the Prime Minister and its widely propagated narratives, including strong action against the mafias (‘bulldozer waali sarkaar’ as they often call it), law and order, women safety and free ration to the poor.
Interestingly, COVID management doesn’t seem to find a prominent place; neither in the opposition’s narrative, nor in the BJP’s.
The Congress is banking on its slogan of ‘ladki hoon lad sakti hoon’ but it would be visible only on March 10: That is how well the ‘ladki’ (Priyanka Gandhi Vadra) fought. The election, except for a handful of seats, has completely turned bipolar.
