New Delhi: Skymet, India’s premier weather forecasting and agriculture risk solution firm, has released its Monsoon Forecast for 2025, predicting a ‘normal’ monsoon at 103% (with a margin of error of +/- 5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 868.6mm from June to September. The definition of 'normal' falls within the range of 96%-104% of LPA. Skymet, consistently promoting a normal monsoon in its earlier assessments, has maintained this outlook.
Skymet's Monsoon Prediction For 2025
Skymet predicts favorable monsoon conditions for Western and Southern India, with the core rainfed regions of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh expected to receive adequate rainfall. Particularly heavy rainfall is anticipated along the Western Ghats, especially in Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, and Goa. However, the Northeast region and the hilly states in Northern India may experience below-normal rainfall during the monsoon season.
Accordin to the report by Skymet, Jatin Singh, the Managing Director of Skymet, noted that the La Nina phenomenon this season was weak and brief, with its indicators now diminishing. The likelihood of El Nino, which usually disrupts monsoon patterns, is ruled out, leading to expectations of an ENSO-neutral environment prevailing during the Indian Summer Monsoon.
The combination of the dwindling La Nina effects and ENSO-neutral conditions is expected to protect the monsoon from adverse developments. Additionally, a preliminary forecast points towards a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which historically, in conjunction with ENSO-neutral conditions, has led to favorable monsoon outcomes. The latter part of the season is predicted to show improved conditions compared to the initial phase.
Other influences on the monsoon include the IOD, which is currently neutral but may turn positive before the monsoon begins. The synchronous behavior of ENSO and IOD is anticipated to navigate the monsoon within safe margins, suggesting a modest start due to the swift transition from La Nina to ENSO-neutral conditions, before gathering momentum mid-season.
For the JJAS (June-July-August-September) period, Skymet estimates the probabilities of seasonal rainfall as follows: a 30% chance of Above Normal (rainfall between 105% to 110% of the Long Period Average, LPA), a 40% chance of Normal (rainfall between 96% to 104% of LPA), a 15% chance of Below Normal (rainfall between 90% to 95% of LPA), and a 5% chance of Drought (rainfall below 90% of LPA).
On a monthly basis, predicted precipitation is expected to unfold as follows:
June: 96% of LPA (165.3mm) with a 50% chance of normal, 20% chance of above normal, and 30% chance of below normal.
July: 102% of LPA (280.5mm) with a 60% chance of normal, 20% chance of above normal, and 20% chance of below normal.
August: 108% of LPA (254.9mm) with a 40% chance of normal, 40% chance of above normal, and 20% chance of below normal.
September: 104% of LPA (167.9mm) with a 60% chance of normal, 20% chance of above normal, and 20% chance of below normal.
