In a recent survey conducted by Times Now in collaboration with Matrize NC, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), will emerge as the clear frontrunner in the upcoming Lok Sabha Elections, slated for April and May 2024.
The survey predicts a resounding victory for the NDA, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi poised to assume the office for a third term. The survey suggests the coalition is positioned to secure a formidable 366 seats out of 543 in the Lok Sabha.
BJP to command lead in Hindi heartland
The survey suggested that the NDA is expected to take 41.8 per cent of the votes, leading by a significant margin. On the other hand, the seven month-old INDIA bloc is projected to secure 104 seats with an estimated 28.6 per cent of the votes. Other parties are predicted to clinch 73 seats, accounting for 29.6 per cent of the votes.
According to the survey, Uttar Pradesh that dominates with 80 Lok Sabha constituency seats will favour the BJP. The saffron party is projected to secure a staggering 77, surpassing its 2019 tally, suggesting stronghold of the Modi persona in the state remains unshaken.
The NDA is likely to underperform in Bihar, where it joined hands with Janata Dal-United (JDU), by winning 35 seats out of 40 – a loss of four seats compared to the previous Lok Sabha polls.
In West Bengal, the survey predicts a resounding victory for Trinamool Congress (TMC) supremo and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, securing 26 out of 42 seats. Banerjee, who is part of the INDIA bloc, had announced in January that the TMC will go solo in West Bengal for the Lok Sabha elections.
A different picture in the South
The Times Now-Matrize survey provided a contrasting picture in South India. Like in Bihar, the BJP is predicted to underperfom in Karnataka by losing four seats than its 2019 tally. The party is projected to secure 21 out of 28 seats. The Congress is predicted to win five seats, and the JD(S) is estimated to win two seats.
However, in Tamil Nadu, the BJP will open account by one seat. The DMK-Congress alliance is projected to win 36 out of 39 seats, while the AIADMK is estimated to win only two seats, according to the survey. In Telangana, the BJP is predicted to win five seats, challenging the ruling Congress, which is projected to secure nine seats. Asaduddin Owaisi's All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is likely to secure one seat, according to the survey.
BJP's limited Influence in Kerala and Andhra Pradesh
The survey anticipated a poor showing for the BJP in Andhra Pradesh and Kerala. In Andhra Pradesh, Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSR Congress is projected to win 19 seats, while the TDP-Jana Sena alliance is likely to bag six seats.
In Kerala, the INDIA bloc is projected to dominate with a vote share of 74.9 per cent, leaving the BJP-led NDA with a 19.8 per cent vote share.
