Thiruvananthapuram: With the election campaign intensifying in Kerala, the ground, it seems, is slipping away from under the feet of the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), as the Opposition has mounted attack on the Pinarayi government on multiple fronts.
CM Pinarayi Vijayan’s gambit to use the Sabarimala issue to consolidate the liberal forces by playing the reformist card has failed to bear results. Further, the entry of Congress President Rahul Gandhi in the southern state has upset the CPI-M math.
According to an opinion poll conducted by a local newspaper and Nielson, the last such poll permitted under the Election Commission’s model code of conduct, the ruling LDF tally in the general election could be down to 4-5 seats of the total 20 constituencies. The Congress-led Opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) appeared set to sweep the poll.
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Rahul’s presence has energised the Congress camp, which was until recently, engaged in a bickering between the factions led by former CM Oommen Chandy and Leader of Opposition Ramesh Chennithala. The Wayanad seat itself was a bone of contention between the two sides. Rahul has not only contained the infighting, it has nurtured a new sense of unity within the party, invigorating the rank and file. The change is visible in the UDF campaign.
In the central Kerala districts of Pathanamthitta, Mavelikkara, Alappuzha and Kottayam, which constitute the hotbed of the Sabarimala protests, the LDF candidates facing bleak prospects as the hurt sentiments of the overwhelming majority find expression in the voting. It is a sign of Vijayan’s stand unpopularity on the issue the posters of CPI-M candidates do not even carry his picture.
The LDF game-plan to show the two major national parties in bad light over Sabarimala has failed, as the Rahul’s entry, who has been leading the attack against Modi, boosted the credentials of the Congress as the only party capable of thumping the BJP. It has denied the CPI-M its space on the anti-BJP plank.
Unfortunately, for the LDF, the districts where Sabarimala is an emotional issue also happen to see a sizeable population of Christian communities who have numerous grievances against the Pinarayi government.
A dispute between two factions of the Church, namely Orthodox and Jacobite, over controlling the church properties has put the government on the mat where it can side with a faction, risking the alienation of the other. To complicate the situation, both sides feel aggrieved and await their turn to show how dangerous it would be to ignore their demands.
In fact, the CPI-M had secured the support of the Orthodox faction, which is in possession of a Supreme Court order giving it ownership of most of the churches, but cannot enter the premises as they are currently in control of the rival Jacobite faction, in a difficult by-election that the LDF ultimately won.
With the fight getting uglier, often involving violence and law and order issues, the government could not keep its word, enraging the Orthodox followers. They have threatened to “teach” the government a lesson.
Another gamble by the Pinarayi government to introduce a law to control the huge assets held by churches and parishes in the wake of a series of irregular financial transactions and tax dodging attempts has antegonised the Christian communities, who feel it is part of the communist government’s strategy to fight religious faith and traditions as an extension of its approach on Sabarimala.
Although resistance forced the Pinarayi government to drop the plan to introduce the new law, the Christian communities continue to be apprehensive of the government’s intentions and they could be just waiting to give expression to their worries at the time of voting. These are all discomforting thoughts for the Marxists, for whom a win in most seats in Kerala is crucial to protect its status as a national party.
