Cyclone Mocha over the southeast Bay of Bengal intensified on Friday morning, with wind speeds of around 140-150 km per hour gusting to 165 km per hour. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the severe cyclonic storm will cross an area between Cox’s Bazar (Bangladesh) and Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) around Saturday noon as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 150-160 km per hour gusting to 175 km per hour.
Impact on agriculture and offshore Industries
Hindustan Times reported that IMD has warned of minor damage to structures and uprooting of small trees, the possibility of landslides in vulnerable areas, and damage to small trees such as bananas in Mizoram, Tripura, and South Manipur. It has advised farmers to immediately harvest mature fruits and crops, provide staking and cover to vegetable nurseries and orchards, avoid the application of fertilizers and pesticides, and keep livestock inside sheds.
Shipping and offshore industries are likely to be impacted due to the very rough to phenomenal sea (9-14 m wave height), and IMD has recommended regulating tourism and offshore activities and shipping near Andaman and Nicobar Islands until Saturday. It has advised regulating shipping activity in the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea until Sunday.
Impact on weather and monsoon
Cyclone Mocha is unlikely to impact the monsoon, which normally reaches Kerala around June 1. IMD has stated that “Mocha is a transient system, and there is still a fortnight left for the normal onset date for monsoon. We do not think the very severe cyclone will impact monsoon onset”. However, the cyclone is pulling winds and moisture, and parts of east and northeast India are expected to record severe heat.
On Wednesday, maximum temperatures were markedly above normal (5.1°C or more) in parts of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and Gangetic West Bengal.
IMD has issued a heat wave warning for pockets in Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Bihar, and West Bengal on May 11, Konkan from May 10 to 12, Rajasthan on May 12 and 13, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam from May 13 to 15. Due to humid air and high temperature, uncomfortable weather is likely in Konkan, Odisha, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu.
Sea surface temperatures
The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (Pune) climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll said sea surface temperatures near Myanmar were as high as the rest of the Bay around 30-32°C or 1-2°C above normal. “The subsurface conditions are also warm, but not as warm as central Bay.”
The tropical heat potential, which provides energy to the cyclone, is high near the Myanmar coast. “Bay of Bengal is considerably warm with sea surface temperatures of over 30°C over most parts of the ocean.”
