Bengaluru: COVID-19 cases are expected to peak in early July in India, where deaths from the pandemic could top 18,000, an epidemiologist and a public health expert said.
The country is still in the ascending limb of the epidemic, said Prof D Prabhakaran, Director, Centre for Control of Chronic Conditions (CCCC).
Prabhakaran, also Professor at the Dept of Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, the UK, said, “There can be no single number when asked about his assessment on eventual COVID-19 deaths in India. We should peak around early July.”
This is based on a study of various published models and observing how the epidemic has risen and fallen in other countries, he told PTI on Wednesday.
“Given we are expecting around 4-6 lakh cases and with an average of three per cent mortality, it (COVID-19 deaths in India) would be around 12,000-18,000,” added the Adjunct Professor, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University in the US.
On low mortality rate in India and possible reasons for it, he said we will know if the mortality is actually low when the epidemic ends.
However with limited data it appears that mortality is low.
—Agencies
