Thiruvananthapuram: Despite a clampdown by the Election Commission against its use in campaigning, it is apparent that Sabarimala will be a most crucial factor in deciding the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections in Kerala.
Though the political parties are showing restraint in openly raising the issue, they are skirting around the Election Commission strictures and using it to emote the frustration of the overwhelming majority who are opposed to the entry of women to the famous hill shrine. They do it by way of allusions, without directly invoking the temple or its deity Lord Ayyappa.
While there is no way of determining how exactly Sabarimala will play out in the final voting pattern, all available indications point to a backlash against the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who has been blamed for undue haste in implementing.
The Supreme Court verdict to permit entry of women in the restricted age group to Sabarimala despite the massive opposition and the fact that a spate of petitions seeking judicial review were pending in the court. But who will reap the maximum benefit of the backlash is still unclear, although both the Congress-led opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) and the BJP stand to gain.
The Sabarimala issue was a heaven-sent opportunity for the saffron party to grow its clout in a terrain that it has long found difficult for the lotus to bloom, given the fiercely secular polity of the state. When the party managed to send a lone MLA to the assembly in the 2016 election, it was considered a miracle.
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Former Union Minister O Rajagopal, who made this happen, actually won on the strength of his personal credibility, rather than the clout of the party. But should BJP repeat the feat in the Lok Sabha election, the possibility of which is considered rather strong, it will cause no such consternation.
The party has been increasing its vote share in every subsequent election, including those for local bodies. Already, opinion polls indicate that at least in three seats the real fight is between Congress and the BJP, with the candidates of the ruling front trailing behind both.
In the high-profile Thiruvananthapuram constituency, where Shashi Tharoor is seeking a third term, BJP’s Kummanam Rajasekharan, who has just quit as governor of Mizoram to fight the poll as instructed by the party, is giving the Congress MP a run for the money.
Opinion polls have indicated a difference of just one percent in the estimated voter support for the two candidates. The fact that Tharoor has complained to the party’s state and central leadership over lack of coordination at the grass roots level campaigning is enough to suggest that the things are not as smooth as he may have anticipated.
In the crucial Pathanamthitta seat, the catchment area of Sabarimala, the BJP is said to be giving a tough fight to the Congress candidate, who despite being a two-termer is not very popular with the local people. On the other hand, BJP candidate K Surendran is a Sabarimala agitation hero, who had to spend much time in jail, and has earned the sympathy of those who stand for protection of the temple rituals.
If Kummanam and Surendran somehow steal the show, it would mark the dawn of a new era of politics in Kerala, giving BJP a much-needed credibility boost, and greater relevance in a system that is used to UDF and LDF alternating between them in power.
