Patna, November 11: As the high-stakes Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 conclude, most exit polls released on Tuesday evening indicate that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is likely to return to power with a comfortable majority. The poll of polls predicts NDA to get around 150 seats, leaving the MGB at approximately 90. Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj is expected to get only around 0-2 seats in the elections, the pollsters predicted.
The poll of polls averages projections from multiple agencies and it has placed NDA well ahead of the majority mark in the 243 assembly seats in the state.
According to DV Research, the NDA is projected to secure 137–152 seats, while the MGB may win between 83–98 seats. The Matrize–IANS exit poll suggests a slightly stronger showing for the ruling alliance, giving the NDA 147–167 seats, the MGB 70–90 and others around 2–6. Similarly, the People’s Pulse survey predicts 133–159 seats for the NDA and 75–101 for the opposition.
Aggregating these forecasts, the poll of polls shows the NDA averaging around 150 seats, leaving the MGB at approximately 90 and Jan Suraaj, independents or smaller parties with minimal impact. With the majority mark set at 122, the projections point to a decisive advantage for the ruling alliance.
The 2025 Bihar polls have been one of the most closely watched state elections, seen as a key test of both Nitish Kumar’s governance record and Tejashwi Yadav’s leadership of the opposition coalition. Major issues shaping voter sentiment include employment, law and order, inflation and the state’s infrastructure progress.
Voter turnout in the first two phases has been notably high, with over 65% in Phase 1 and 60.40% by 3 PM in Phase 2, signaling strong public engagement. However, opposition parties have alleged irregularities in the voter rolls and criticised the government’s handling of local issues.
While exit polls strongly favour the NDA, analysts caution that the final results on November 14 will be the ultimate test. In past elections, Bihar has seen exit poll predictions swing dramatically once counting begins.
For now, though, the poll of polls clearly suggests that Nitish Kumar is on track to serve another term as Chief Minister, with the NDA maintaining its political dominance in Bihar.
