New Delhi: The Economic Survey 2025-26 said that gold and silver prices are likely to remain at high levels as long as global uncertainties continue. The Survey noted that both metals touched lifetime highs in 2025, reflecting strong demand from investors who see them as safe assets during unstable times.
It added that prices may ease only if there is lasting peace globally and major trade disputes are resolved.
Why prices are rising?
According to the Survey, the rally in gold and silver is being driven by several factors. These include a weak US dollar, expectations of low or negative real interest rates, and growing concerns over geopolitical and financial risks.
Because of these conditions, investors across the world are moving their money into precious metals to protect their wealth from market volatility.
MCX sees fresh records
In domestic markets, prices have surged sharply. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), silver futures crossed the record ₹4 lakh per kg mark after rising more than 6 percent in a single session. Gold also touched a fresh all-time high of ₹1.8 lakh per 10 grams.
However, the Survey said that some experts believe the sharp rise seen in 2025 may not continue at the same pace in the coming years.
Strong gold imports
The Survey highlighted that gold remains one of India’s top imported items. In FY25, India’s imports were dominated by crude oil, gold, and petroleum products, which together made up more than one-third of total imports.
Gold imports rose 27.4 percent year-on-year, mainly due to strong domestic demand and rising prices. Gold prices increased 38.2 percent during the year, making imports more expensive.
Central banks increasing gold reserves
India’s foreign exchange reserves data also show a rising importance of gold. While foreign currency assets slightly declined to USD 560.5 billion by mid-January 2026, the gold component jumped to USD 117.5 billion, up from USD 78.2 billion in March 2025.
This rise reflects both higher gold prices and a global trend where central banks are shifting part of their reserves away from the US dollar and into gold for safety.
Global trend supports gold
The Survey noted that gold prices globally jumped from USD 2,607 to USD 4,315 per ounce in 2025, one of the sharpest annual increases in recent years. Many emerging economies have increased their gold holdings due to geopolitical risks and changes in global interest rates.
Outlook for other metals
While precious metals are expected to remain strong, base metals such as iron, aluminium, and copper are likely to see only moderate growth. Copper may stay firm due to demand from green energy and data centres, along with supply issues.
However, the World Bank expects global commodity prices to fall by about 7 percent in FY27, mainly due to lower crude oil prices, though geopolitical tensions could disrupt this trend.
