Paris: Michel Barnier was appointed as the Prime Minister of France by President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday, 5 September, 2 months after Macron called for the dissolution of the Parliament and ordered snap elections. 73-year-old Barnier is France’s oldest PM and he has just replaced France’s youngest PM, Gabriel Attal (34). While Macron may have finally found his PM, it still isn’t a rosy scenario for him. A vote of no confidence by a large part of the parliamentary deputies is a looming menace that could oust his new-found right hand. Barnier’s exit is possible if 289 out of 577 Members of Parliament vote against him.
Barnier, a politician belonging to the centrist right-wing Les Republicains party will undoubtedly face vehement opposition from the different parties comprising the Leftist bloc, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) or New Popular Front. This desire to blow up a government formed by Barnier has been endorsed by Lucie Castets, the left-wing candidate of the New Popular Front whose hopes to ascend the Matignon, the official residence of the French PM were crushed by Macron last month.
Manuel Bompard, the coordinator of the La France Insoumise party of the NFP expressed his anger when he posted on social network X that appointing Barnier was an "unbearable denial of democracy" and indicated that along with the Prime Minister, his party wanted the President out as well.
The Socialist Party too will vote to censure the PM. Press releases from the French Communist Party and the Ecologists also mention their strong resolve for a vote of no confidence against Macron’s choice.
It is thus certain that 193 deputies of the New Popular Front will vote in favor of censure. This number however is an insufficient total to overthrow the government on their own.
The deputies of the centrist coalition bloc, Ensemble pour la Republique comprising Macron’s La Republique en Marche party, Modem and Horizon parties should in theory support the President’s decision. Few deputies of this bloc however consider Barnier to be a political opponent of the President of the Republic.
La Republique Marche’s members aren’t exactly ecstatic about Macron’s selection. They stated in a press release that they wanted to present their "programmatic priorities to the PM in the coming hours." They also added that there will be no automatic vote of no confidence but he won’t be welcomed with a ‘blank check’. Ex-PM, Edouard Philippe, the founder of Horizons, sent his "warm congratulations" to Barnier.Dissidents however cannot be discarded, particularly in the left wing of Macron's coalition.
Other potential opponents to a motion of no confidence are the deputies of Barnier’s Les Républicains party itself. Laurent Wauquiez, the president of this group, describes the new PM as "a man of great quality" with "all the resources to succeed".
The deputies of the presidential coalition together with those of the traditional right, that is, at least 213 MPs pose no imminent threat to Barnier.
The biggest mystery is what will the elected representatives of the far-right National Rally and their ally Éric Ciotti do? "We will judge his general policy speech, his budgetary decisions and his plan of action," said the party's president, Jordan Bardella. Ambiguity also shrouds the actions of the independent MPs. Will they vote “not confident” about the new PM?
This means around 171 votes are uncertain. They alone could save, or tear Barnier’s government down.
