16:00 Hrs: Latest After the Closing Bell
Nifty (+18, 10850): Judging by today’s trading action at Dalal Street, it appears that the tables have turned in favor of the bull camp.
Thanks in part to Yes Bank’s spectacular performance, up 16.73% in today’s trade and improving global cues.
We suspect, in near term, risk appetite on the buy side will be the preferred theme at Dalal Street as long as Nifty trades above 10,771 mark. Momentum will be back in action, if Nifty is able to move above its immediate hurdles at 10921 mark. Above 10,921 mark Nifty may simply zoom towards 11,111 mark.
Long story short: Establish long positions with stop below Nifty 10771 mark.
The big question: Which stocks to buy?
Obviously, savvy investors will race to take advantage of the ongoing positive momentum. Our preferred bets on buy side are SRF, MINDTREE & COLPAL interweek perspective.
Now before we sign off for the day, let’s look at major instruments.
GLOBAL UPDATE:
DOW Futures (+36, 24587)
NASDAQ Futures (+29, 6694)
DAX (+53, 11125)
FTSE (-16, 6827)
OIL (+0.02, $52.72)
GOLD (+6, $1285)
DOLLAR INDEX (+0.29, 96.41)
COPPER (-17, 5922)
How Asia fared today:
HANG SENG (+113, 27120)
NIKKEI (-19, 20574)
SHANGHAI (+11, 2592)
Nifty (+18, 10849)
Sensex (+87, 36195)
Bank Nifty (+0.13%, 27287)
SGX NIFTY (+0, 10886)
USD/INR (-0.11, 71.21)
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15:00 Hrs: Where’s the Clever Money going at 3 PM?
Nifty (+9, 10841): Yipeeeee!!!
Nifty shakes off the day’s pessimism as Europe jumps to green. Wall Street index futures too recover. Selective stock specific buying advised on any panic from here on.
Q3 RESULTS DUE TOMORROW: Indian Bank, Maruti, LT, Gruh Finance, IOB, GSFC, DHFL, NILKAMAL, M&M Financial.
Probable BTST/STBT trades-
Bullish looking BTST: NIFTY, SRF, DIVIS LAB, BERGER PAINTS, VOLTAS, TECH MAHINDRA, KSCL
Negative looking STBT: CEAT, WOCKHARDT, BAJAJ AUTO.
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14:00 Hrs: Life at Dalal Street after Europe’s Opening Bell
Dalal Street is trading mostly down despite a mostly positive Asia and overnight strength at Wall Street.
Japan’s Nikkei was sluggish after a private survey suggested that Japanese manufacturing had slowed in January. That comes on backdrop of Japan’s weaker-than-expected trade data for December, with exports registering its largest drop in two years, mostly due slowing demand in China.
At the time of writing, Europe was mostly fluctuating just below the break-even point, reflecting the anxiousness amidst ongoing global debate about global growth prospect.
DAX (-29, 11043)
FTSE (-23, 6820)
DOW Futures (-37, 24514)
NASDAQ Futures (+1, 6666)
HANG SENG (+113, 27121)
NIKKEI (-19, 20574)
SHANGHAI (+11, 2592)
Nifty (-14, 10817)
Bank Nifty (-0.21%, 27195)
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12:00 Hrs: Dalal Street’s Top Stories at Midday
(Nifty 10840, Down 15 points): The mood at Dalal Steet is somber and volatilty continues to be the hallmark. The volatility at Dalal Street is expected to increase as we inch closer to the interim budget. The interim Budget 2019 is scheduled to be presented by the government on February 1, 2019.
• Among sectors, Realty, Energy and PSU Bank space are trading higher, while some selling is seen in auto, Metal and Auto space.
• The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market is negative.
• NSE Advances 16. NSE declines 33.
• The NSE Mid-Cap index is down 0.08% at 4,792. The NSE Small-Cap index is down 0.28% at 6,263.
• In F&O space, UJJIVAN and INDIGO are in green, up 4.96% & 3.74% respectively, while on flip side TATA ELXSI& CGPOWER are down 3.58% & 3.46% respectively.
• Amongst index stocks RELIANCE and ITC are in green, up 1.35% & 1.06% respectively, while on flip side TATAMOTORS & INFRATEL are down 2.91% & 3.74% respectively.
• The Indian rupee is trading higher by 9 paise at 71.29 per dollar today v/s its previous close 71.34.
• IMF has forecasted that India’s GDP growth will be at 7.4%, one of the fastest growing economy in the world.
• Q3 RESULTS TO TRICKLE IN: Yes Bank, UltraTech Cement, Biocon, Reliance Power, Edelweiss Financial Services, PNB Housing Finance, Sintex Industries, Colgate Palmolive (India), Bharat Bijlee, Quess Corp, PVR, Pfizer, MphasiS, NIIT, NELCO, Mold-Tek Technologies, Sunflag Iron, Supreme Industries.
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10:30 Hrs: Pursue Opportunities in commodities
Crude Oil: Profit booking likely amidst overbought conditions.
• Crude Oil (-0.24, 52.38). Sluggish moves amidst global growth concerns. Hurdles at 55 mark.
• MCX Crude Oil (+0.16%, 3747). Hurdles at psychological 4000 mark. Overbought conditions prevail.
• Gold (-4, 1280.35). Corrective declines likely amid overbought conditions.
• MCX Gold (-0.12%, 32100). Hurdles at 32501. Corrective declines likely towards 31751.
• Silver (-0.052, 15.328). Rangebound movement likely. Hurdle at 16.05.
• MCX Silver (-0.17%, 39033) Supports at 38751 and then at 37901.
• Copper (0.00, 2.655). Sluggish global growth to act as negative catalyst.
• MCX Copper (+0.07%, 419.55). Selling on strength preferred. Hurdles at 436.
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10:00 Hrs: Nifty’s Crucial Levels
Nifty’s (-11, 10820): The mood is sour and Nifty is unable to get traction on buy side. Choppy and sloppy session quite likely with volatility as hallmark.
Nifty hurdles continue to be at psychological 11,000 mark. Intraday hurdles at 10879. Supports at 10771. Exit leveraged long positions if Nifty slips below 10771 mark.
What Technical Tells Us On Nifty:
Nifty’s KEY SUPPORTS: 10771/10601.
Nifty’s KEY HURDLE: 10879/10921.
Nifty’s INTRADAY RANGE: 10,875-10879.
Nifty’s OUTLOOK FOR THE DAY: Caution warranted.
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09:45 Hrs: Make Informed Decisions
(Nifty: +3, 10836): After a volatile up-and-down session, Nifty attempts to reclaim the dotted lines. Nifty’s supports are now placed at 10771 and then at 10601 zone. Exit leveraged long positions if Nifty slips below 10771 mark.
The biggest hurdles for Nifty in near term is at 10921.
NSE Reality index is star perfumer for the day up 2.04%. DLF too gains 2%+.
Amongst stocks on positive side are: SUN PHARMA (+1.22%, 436) HPCL (+1.21%, 245) ZEEL (+1.09%, 437.55).
On the negative side are TATA MOTORS (-1.80%, 177) INFRATEL (-1.43%, 273) TATA STEEL (-1.08%, 417.40).
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09:00 Hrs: What Caught our Eye at 9 AM?
DOW FUTURES (-30, 24521)
NASDAQ FUTURES (-7, 6659)
SGX NIFTY (+21, 10862)
NIKKEI (-3, 20591)
HANG SENG (+29, 27037)
SHANGHAI (-6, 2575).
Muted action seen at Asia despite overnight strength at Wall Street. SGX Nifty is indicating a green open for our stock markets.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Bullish stocks: BATA, MINDTREE, KPIT, SRF, BRITANNIA, NESTLE, BAJAJ FINSERV.
Bearish stocks: REFCO HOMES, REC, BHEL, TCS, LIC HOUSING FIN, ADANI ENTERPRISES, PFC..
SHOW ME THE MONEY: SELL NMDC (CMP: 89.90). The recent sequence of lower high/ low is intact on daily charts. Key intraday hurdles seen at 92.50. Interweek Strategy: Sell between 91-92.50 zone, targeting 88.50 and then at 82.50-83 zone. Stop 95.45.
Q3 RESULTS TO TRICKLE IN:
24-Jan: Yes Bank, UltraTech Cement, Biocon, Reliance Power, Edelweiss Financial Services, PNB Housing Finance, Sintex Industries, Colgate Palmolive (India), Bharat Bijlee, Quess Corp, PVR, Pfizer, MphasiS, NIIT, NELCO, Mold-Tek Technologies, Sunflag Iron, Supreme Industries.
Bulls Vs. Bears: Time to Pick a Side!!
A volatile session quite likely.
Preferred trade on Nifty (10832): Buy only on any sharp corrective declines between 10745-10761 zone, targeting 10901 and final aggressive targets at 11001 mark with stop at 10601.
Preferred trade on Bank Nifty (27251): Key intraday support at 27100. Confirmation of strength only above 27751. Buy at CMP, targeting 27451 and then at 27751 mark with strict stop at 26901.
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08:00 Hrs: Calculus Derivatives Corner
Market Summary:
• Nifty January Futures ended Wednesday’s session at a premium of +15 against +06.
• The Put- Call Open Interest Ratio was at 1.15 for Nifty whereas it was 1.08 for Bank Nifty.
• The Put-Call Volume Ratio was at 1.02 for the Nifty and 0.91 for Bank Nifty.
• For Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 11000 Strike Price, followed by 10900 Strike Price for January Series. Short build-up was seen at strike prices 10800-11100 for January Series.
• Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) was seen at strike price 10800 followed by 10700 strike price for January series. Short covering was seen at strike prices 10600-11100 for January Series.
• For Bank Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 27500 Strike Price and Maximum Put Open Interest stands at 27500 Strike Price.
• As per Wednesday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s sold shares worth Rs. 775.82 crores in the Indian Equity Market. DIIs on the other hand, bought shares worth Rs. 583.77 crores in the Indian Equity market.
• Long Buildup: OFSS, SUN PHARMA, TECHM, MINDTREE, BRITANNIA.
• Short Buildup: ITC, ADANI PORTS, ICICPRU, M&M, INFY.
• Short Covering: DHFL, ESCORTS, CHOLAFIN, SUNTV, LUPIN.
• Long Unwinding: ICICI BANK, RELIANCE, TITAN, AUROPHARMA, STAR.
• Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: JET AIRWAYS, JAIN IRRIGATION, RELCAP.
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07:00 Hrs: Know What Matters at Dalal Street
GLOBAL UPDATE:
In early action, SGX Nifty is seen attempting to shrug off yesterday’s sell-off.
DOW (+171, 24575)
NASDAQ (+5, 7026)
SGX NIFTY (+33, 10875)
NIKKEI (+11, 20605)
HANG SENG (+8, 27016)
BOVESPA (+1455, 96558)
OIL (+0, $52.62)
GOLD (-1, $1289)
SUCCESSFUL INVESTING IS ANTICIPATING THE TRENDS OF:
Global: Positive.
FII: Negative.
DII: Positive.
F&O: Neutral.
Sentiment: Cautious.
NIFTY’s CRUCIAL LEVELS:
Nifty’s CURRENT MARKET PRICE: 10,822.
Nifty’s SUPPORT:
Intraday: 10,745/10,601.
Medium Term: 10,557/10,333.
Long Term: 9,951.
Nifty’s RESISTANCE:
Intraday: 11,001/11111.
Medium Term: 11,111/11,751.
Long Term: 12,001.
Nifty’s RANGE:
Intraday: 10,775-10881.
Medium Term: 10,501-11,111.
Long Term: 9,951-11,701.
Nifty’s OUTLOOK
Intraday: Neutral.
Medium Term: Neutral.
Long Term: Positive.
Our call of the day suggests any early morning optimism will fail to overshadow global growth concerns and trade worries. Nifty’s make-or-break support at 10745 mark. Buying advised only if Nifty moves above 10921 mark.
Our chart of the day suggests establishing sell positions in stocks like PFC, LIC HOUSING FINANCE & BEML on any early strength with interweek perspective.
Q3 EARNINGS TO TRICKLE IN THIS WEEK:
• 24-Jan: Yes Bank, UltraTech Cement, Biocon, Reliance Power, Edelweiss Financial Services, PNB Housing Finance, Sintex Industries, Colgate Palmolive (India), Bharat Bijlee, Quess Corp, PVR, Pfizer, MphasiS, NIIT, NELCO, Mold-Tek Technologies, Sunflag Iron, Supreme Industries.
• 25-Jan: Indian Bank, Maruti, LT, Gruh Finance, Maruti, IOB, GSFC, DHFL, NILKAMAL, M&M Financial.
IMPORTANT THEMES OF THE DAY:
We suspect, this trade war is about to get much worse. The U.S.-China trade war is real and the clock is ticking on massive new tariffs once the current “truce” expires on March 1.
The dark cloud for the pessimism is also on backdrop of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) report that cut its global growth forecast to 3.5% for 2019 from 3.7% in 2018 and from the 3.7% it predicted for 2019 back in October.
The other negative catalysts in the backdrop are:
1. Foreign investors pulling out more than Rs 5,100 crore from the Indian equity markets in January 2019 so far.
2. Weak performance by Indian Rupee compared to other currencies in Asia.
3. Recent sharp rebound in oil prices.
4. Most of the momentum stocks are languishing, a relatively very weak market breadth.
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