The benchmark Nifty went from strength to strength this Monday, extending solid gains from the last three trading sessions thanks in part to:
A. President Donald Trump’s statement that he would postpone a March 1 deadline for a U.S. tariff hike on Chinese imports following weekend talks on a battle over Beijing’s technology ambitions.
B. Both, the FIIs and the DIIs camp were seen as net buyers.
We recommend investors should continue to view any market pressure as a buying opportunity! We say so because, one of the biggest threats to the stock market is finally looking a bit less scary. Yes, global growth concerns appear less scary on hopes of U.S-China trade truce.
Nifty’s next goalpost seen at 10921 and then aggressive targets at 11000 mark.
Among stocks on buy side, we like MUHTOOT FINANCE, BAJAJ FINANCE & BEML with interweek perspective.
Now before we sign off for the day, let’s look at major instruments.
DOW Futures (+122, 26124)
NASDAQ Futures (+36, 7125)
DAX (+27, 11485)
FTSE (+8, 7186)
OIL (+0.12, $57.38)
GOLD (-1, $1333)
DOLLAR INDEX (-0.10, 96.39)
COPPER (+54, 6530)
HANG SENG (+143, 28959)
NIKKEI (+103, 21528)
SHANGHAI (+157, 2961)
Nifty (+88, 10880)
Sensex (+342, 36213)
Bank Nifty (+292, 27159)
SGX NIFTY (+0, 10894)
USD/INR (-0.13, 71.01)
Nifty’s next goalpost seen at 10921 and then aggressive targets at 11000 mark. Establishing long positions on any corrective declines should be the preferred strategy.
Bullish looking BTST stocks: MUTHOOT FINANCE, ADANI ENTERPRISES, YES BANK, BEML, HCL TECH, MINDTREE
Negative looking STBT stocks: TVS MOTORS, ENGINEERS INDIA.
Dalal Street is seen advancing in the backdrop of a spectacular run at Chinese stock markets which rallied today around 6%.
The key positive catalyst: President Donald Trump said he would postpone a March 1 deadline for a U.S. tariff hike on Chinese imports following weekend talks on a battle over Beijing’s technology ambitions.
DAX (+44, 11501)
FTSE (+18, 7196)
DOW Futures (+93, 26095)
NASDAQ Futures (+28, 7116)
HANG SENG (+143, 28959)
NIKKEI (+103, 21528)
SHANGHAI (+157, 2961)
Nifty (+70, 10861)
Sensex (+229, 36100)
Bank Nifty (+224, 27091)
Nifty hovering just above 10,800 mark, now nearing its major hurdle zone of 10861 (200 DMA). All technical eyes wait anxiously whether it gets breached.
At the time of writing, all Benchmark stock indices at US, Europe and Asian markets are seen spreading the green. That seems to keep the Indian Markets cheered.
Among sectoral indices, all the indices are waving green signal except Public Sector Banks, lagging behind by 0.54%. Maximum gain visible in NSE Auto, NSE Pharma, NSE Private Banks which are up 0.94%, 0.72%, 0.67% respectively.
Looking at above sectoral picture, looks like money is moving from PSB stocks to Private banking stocks.
The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market is positive.
The NSE 150 Mid-Cap index is up 0.36% at 5,943. The NSE Small-Cap 100 index is up 0.54% at 5,910.
INDIA VIX index representing volatility is up at 15.59 (+0.95%).
On the Positive side: UPL at 847 (+2.38%), DR Reddy at 2687 (+1.8%), Sun Pharma at 438.25 (+1.80%) holding the Nifty in green,
Souring the mood: ADANIPORTS at 327 (-7.68%), Infratel at 304.65 (-2.85%) & BPCL at 339.75 (-1.29%).
Reality stocks have done well after the GST Council on Sunday cut tax rates on under-construction flats to 5 per cent and affordable homes to 1 per cent, effective April 1.
RCOM witnessed a fresh spell of selling (down 7%) after Axis Trustee said more shares of Reliance Communications have been pledged with it, taking the total shares with it to 9.18%.
Shares of IIFL Holdings and Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) traded with negative bias in response to the adverse SEBI order on the two companies’ commodity derivatives subsidiaries.
IIFL Holdings shares slumped nearly 3% while Motilal Oswal shares fell over 2.5% on the BSE.
Crude-oil continues to trade firm, looks to to test $ 60 mark soon on U.S.-China trade talk progress, signs of falling crude output from Saudi & OPEC cuts. MCX Copper scaling intraday highs as attention squarely on positive U.S.-China trade talks.
Gold (+0.06%, 1333.55): Interweek Strategy: Buy between 1325-1327 zone, targeting 1351-1368 zone and then aggressive targets at 1389 with stop below 1305.
MCX Gold (-0.01%, 33513). Interweek strategy: Buy between 33151-33201 zone, targeting 33901 and then at 34751-35001 zone with stop at 32857.
Silver (+0.09%, 15.928): Interweek Strategy: Buy between 15.75-15.87 zone, targeting 16.15 zone and then at 16.71-16.75 zone with stop below 15.27.
MCX Silver (+0.15%, 40327): Interweek strategy: Buy between 39801-40000 zone, targeting 40721 mark and then aggressive targets at 41400 zone with stop at 39363.
Crude Oil (-0.24%, 57.12). Interweek strategy: Establish buy positions between 53-55 zone, targeting 59 and then finally at 61-62 zone with strict stop at 52.05.
MCX Crude Oil (-0.39%, 4069). Interweek strategy: Buy between 3925-3951 zone, targeting 4127 mark and then aggressive targets at 4250-4315 zone with stop at 3771.
Copper (+1.54%, 6489): Progress in U.S-China trade truce key positive catalyst.
MCX Copper (+0.05%, 462.50): Interweek strategy: Establish buy between 451-455 zone, targeting 475 mark and then aggressive targets at 483-489 zone with stop at 441.
Nifty’s (+3, 10792) Dalal Street witnesses wonderment and anxiety.
There’s a good chance that Nifty will witness an up-and-down session as investors attention squarely on U.S.-China trade talks
Nifty’s major hurdles for the day will be at its 200 DMA at 10861 mark. The bears’ case crumbles only above Nifty 10861 mark.
Nifty’s KEY SUPPORTS: 10757/10741.
Nifty’s KEY HURDLE: 10861/10925.
Nifty’s INTRADAY RANGE: 10751-10851.
Nifty’s OUTLOOK FOR THE DAY: Buy on dips.
(Nifty: +27, 10818):
As expected, the benchmark Nifty opens well above the dotted lines, and the positive takeaway is that the broader markets are again able to show enthusiasm on buy side.
Realty shares in limelight after the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council in its 33rd meeting held on 24 February 2019, recommended that GST shall be levied at effective GST rate of 5%, without input tax credit (ITC), on residential properties outside affordable segment. The new rate shall become applicable from 1 April 2019, Ministry of Finance said in a statement. DLF in early action is up 1.48% at 171.85.
Nifty’s major hurdles for the day will be at its 200 DMA at 10861 mark. Nifty’s support now seen at 10741 mark.
Amongst stocks on positive side are: IBULLSHSGFIN (+1.69%, 691) JSW STEEL (+1.50%, 290) TATA MOTORS (+1.49%, 177)
On the negative side are ADANI PORTS (-5.21%, 336) INFRATEL (-1.43%, 309) POWERGRID (-1.13%, 180).
This Monday morning, the good news for bulls camp is that President Donald Trump is willing to extend China trade-deal deadline, citing ‘substantial progress’. So, the March 1 tariff deadline put off.
Trump said that if negotiations progress, he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at his Florida resort to finalize an agreement.
But Asian stockk indices are not showing that enthusiasm probably the street is looking for a trade deal with China to be a good deal on all fronts.
DOW FUTURES (+55, 26057)
NASDAQ FUTURES (+20, 7108)
SGX NIFTY (+1, 10808)
NIKKEI (+147, 21572)
HANG SENG (+13, 28829)
SHANGHAI (+69, 2874).
BULLISH STOCKS: REC, PFC, YES BANK, PEL, ADANI ENTERPRISES, MINDTREE, UPL, SRF, DLF, BATA, Dr. LAL PATH LABS, ASIAN PAINTS, TATA STEEL, TEAMLEASE, PI INDUSTRIES.
BEARISH STOCKS: HPCL, IOC, KOTAK BANK, HDFC BANK, AMBUJA CEMENTS, CUMMINS, KSCL, MCX, NALCO, INFRATEL, COAL INDIA.
SHOW ME THE MONEY: BUY PFC (CMP 111.20) PFC has signaled a breakout from a probable ‘higher consolidation zone’ on daily charts. Key interweek support seen at 102.50. Interweek Strategy: Buy between 107-110 zone, targeting 115 zone and then aggressive targets at 119-121 zone. Stop below 105.45.
Option Call: SELL NIFTY 28th FEBRUARY PE strike price 10700 at CMP 32.45. Maximum Profit: Rs. 2,433.75/-. Loss: Unlimited. Stop: Exit Put option if Nifty moves below 10731. (Nifty February Futures CMP 10811.15).
Buy WSTCSTPAPR at 238 Targets : 245 / 252 Stop Loss – 231
Buy PARAGMILK at 212.3 Targets : 220.6 / 228.9 Stop Loss – 204
Buy JK PAPER at 131.50. Targets : 130 / 147. Stop Loss – 119.
Biggest hurdles for Nifty at 10821 mark…
Preferred trade on Nifty (10790): Buy between 10745-10765 zone, targeting 10821 and then aggressive targets at 10901-10921 zone with strict stop at 10621.
Preferred trade on Bank Nifty (26868): The biggest near term supports at 26381. Confirmation of strength only above 27751. Buy at CMP, targeting 27151 and then at 27551-27751 zone and finally at 28000 mark with strict stop at 26381.
1.ADANIENT
2.ADANIPOWER
3.ALBK
4.IDBI
5.JETAIRWAYS
6.PCJEWELLER
7.RPOWER
• Nifty 28th February Futures ended Friday’s session at a premium of +19 against +18.
• The Put- Call Open Interest Ratio was at 1.09 for Nifty whereas it was 1.03 for Bank Nifty.
• The Put-Call Volume Ratio was at 0.98 for the Nifty and 0.93 for Bank Nifty.
• For Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 11000 Strike Price, followed by 10900 Strike Price for 28th February Series. Unwinding of positions was seen at strike prices 10500-10700.
• Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) was seen at strike price 10700 followed by 10400 strike price for 28th February series. Short buildup was seen at strike prices 10650-10950.
• For Bank Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 27500 Strike Price and Maximum Put Open Interest stands at 26500 Strike Price.
• As per Friday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s bought shares worth Rs. 6311.01 crores in the Indian Equity Market. DIIs too bought shares worth Rs. 838.88 crores in the Indian Equity market.
• Long Buildup: ICICI BANK, TECHM, CENTURY, HDFC.
• Short Buildup: BHARAT FIN, CONCOR, ADANI PORTS.
• Short Covering: L&TFH, MANAPPURAM, HDFC BANK, DLF.
• Long Unwinding: KOTAKBANK, GAIL, COLPAL.
• Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: ADANI ENT, ADANI POWER, ALBK, IDBI, JETAIRWAYS, PC JEWELLER, RPOWER.
DOW (+181, 26032)
NASDAQ (+68, 7528)
SGX NIFTY (+3, 10810)
NIKKEI (+129, 21554)
HANG SENG (+87, 28903)
BOVESPA (+953, 97886)
OIL (+0.15, $57.41)
GOLD (-1, $1331)
Global: Positive.
FII: Positive.
DII: Positive.
F&O: Positive.
Sentiment: Buy on dips.
Nifty’s CURRENT MARKET PRICE: 10,791.
Nifty’s SUPPORT:
Intraday: 10739/10671.
Medium Term: 10,583/10,333.
Long Term: 9,951.
Nifty’s RESISTANCE:
Intraday: 10821/10925.
Medium Term: 11,001/11,125.
Long Term: 11,751.
Nifty’s RANGE:
Intraday: 10,751-10861.
Medium Term: 10,501-11,125.
Long Term: 9950-11,725.
Nifty’s OUTLOOK
Intraday: Positive.
Medium Term: Neutral.
Long Term: Positive.
Our call of the day suggests Nifty faces major hurdles at 10821-10861 zone in near term. The benchmark should be able to brush aside any negative news as an aberration. The ongoing modest relief rally has a good chance to find decent buyers as bulls will aim to keep optimism alive and shake off the sour news on the border tensionespecially after the unfortunate attack at Pulwama, Kashmir..
Both, the FIIs and the DIIs camp were net buyers in Friday’s trade.
Our chart of the day MUTHOOT FINANCE, JSW STEEL and ADANI ENTERPRISES with interweek perspective.
• Oil continues to trade firm on Saudi and OPEC cuts, now at $57 a barrel.
The positive catalysts in favor of bulls:
1. U.S – China trade optimism.
2. Both, the FIIs and the DIIs camp were net buyers in Friday’s trade. (FII’s bought shares worth Rs. 6311.01 crores.)
3. The GST Council on Sunday slashed tax rates on under-construction housing properties to 5% without input tax credit from existing 12%. That’s a big boost to reality estate sector,
4. MPC minutes reading suggests switch from hawkish to dovish on backdrop of lower-than-expected inflation and signs of a slowdown in growth.
5. Boosting trading sentiments at Dalal Street would be the government’s approval of recapitalization of Rs 48,239 crore in 12 public sector bank. This decision is welcome and quite positive as it comes at a time when NBFCs are facing liquidity issue, and most importantly, the capital will help banks to be out of PCA norms so that lending can pick up and increase market share of public sector banks specially the recent banks which have exited PCA.
If you recollect, the government in December 2018 had infused Rs 28,615 crore into seven public sector.
The negative catalysts in favor of bears:
1. Bears can hang on their hopes as rising crude oil prices are the negative catalysts for our markets.
2. Bears can also hang on their hopes on overall economic activity in the eurozone which has slowed more sharply as eurozone manufacturing enters first downturn since Mid-2013. You can blame it to trade frictions and uncertainty about the severity of China’s economic slowdown.
3. The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting signaled that the economic outlook is increasingly uncertain.
4. The border tension which has been gripping our stock markets since last Thursday on wake of terrorist attack in Pulwana, Kashmir.
Long story short: The bears’ case crumbles above Nifty 10821 mark.
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