Lucknow: Kurmi voters have once again moved to the centre of Uttar Pradesh politics, with the Bharatiya Janata Party’s decision to appoint Maharajganj MP Pankaj Chaudhary as state president sharpening the battle for control over one of the state’s most influential OBC blocs. The move is being seen as a direct attempt to consolidate Kurmi votes across 128 Assembly constituencies where the community plays a decisive or influential role.
Estimated to form around 7.4 percent of the state’s population, the Kurmi and Patel community is believed to number between 1.75 crore and 2 crore in Uttar Pradesh. Their electoral influence stretches across Purvanchal, Awadh, central Uttar Pradesh and Bundelkhand. Of the 128 constituencies where Kurmi voters matter, they are considered decisive in nearly 50 seats, making them potential game changers in any closely fought contest.
The BJP already holds a numerical edge among Kurmi legislators, with 27 MLAs from the community compared to 12 from the Samajwadi Party and one from the Congress. In Parliament, however, the picture is more competitive. Of the 11 Kurmi MPs from Uttar Pradesh, seven belong to the SP, three to the BJP and one to Apna Dal (S) chief Anupriya Patel. It is this balance that the BJP now appears keen to alter.
The immediate political impact of the BJP’s Kurmi card is expected to be felt by Apna Dal (S), a party whose entire political identity is built around the Kurmi and Patel community. Despite being a long-standing NDA ally since 2014, Apna Dal (S) has often asserted itself within the alliance. With a senior Kurmi leader now heading the BJP’s state unit, political observers believe Anupriya Patel’s leverage in seat-sharing talks and alliance negotiations could weaken.
The Samajwadi Party, which used the Kurmi factor effectively in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections under its PDA plank, also has reason to be cautious. The SP won seven Kurmi-dominated parliamentary seats by fielding candidates from the community, particularly in constituencies where the BJP had nominated non-OBC candidates. That strategy helped the party emerge as the principal challenger to the BJP in the state.
However, with Pankaj Chaudhary at the helm of the BJP’s state organisation, the party is expected to aggressively court non-Yadav OBC voters, with Kurmis at the top of the list. Analysts point out that every caste group has a sizeable section of floating voters, estimated at 15 to 20 percent, and even a limited shift among Kurmis could tilt outcomes in dozens of seats.
The BJP’s move also has implications for future seat-sharing within the NDA. With parties like the RLD and SBSP now part of the ruling alliance, pressure on smaller partners is likely to grow. In such a scenario, Apna Dal (S) may be forced to settle for fewer seats, particularly in Kurmi-influenced constituencies where the BJP feels confident of contesting on its own.
