The election in Gujarat ultimately turned out to be BJP vs BJP as the saffron party not only weathered anti incumbency but also broke its own record of winning 127 seats in 2002 by emerging victorious in 156 seats this time. Even though Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity is an important factor that worked in BJP’s favour once again. Modi made full use of his popularity in Gujarat to win the assembly elections. Also, for the last two decades, he has completely impressed the people of Gujarat with the equation that Narendra Modi is the identity of Gujarat. If the opposition criticizes Narendra Modi personally, it is a wound to the identity of Gujarat that was aggressively highlighted by Modi and his party which the opposition Congress and AAP failed to strongly counter.
The fact that the leadership of the country is in the hands of Gujaratis in the form of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, the BJP has also succeeded in connecting the issue with the Gujarati identity.
Modi's influence and Gujarati identity
Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge likens Modi with Ravan with a jibe that whether has 100 faces was heavily exploited by BJP and Modi that helped convert PM’s popularity in particular into votes. Modi addressed rallies across Gujarat, held road shows to each maximum number of voters. Not only does Modi's involvement in campaigning affect the voters, the party organization also remains active. The lethal combination of Modi’s charisma and popularity and booth level active organisation yielded results in BJP’s favour.
The issue of Hinduism and religious polarization
The result of this election has once again proved that the influence of Hindutva in Gujarat is still there. Gujarat is known as the laboratory of Hindutva and the issue of Hindutva has been at the forefront of elections in the state more than any other issue. After the 2002 riots in Gujarat, religious polarization has become widespread and continued to attract voters in their favour. Hindutva was also an issue in this election campaign.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah's 2002 lesson-taught statement was directly polarizing. There were many such statements in this election as well. The issue of Hindutva has been deeply rooted in the Gujarati voters for the last two decades and of course this issue of Hindutva directly benefited the Bharatiya Janata Party in the elections. BJP has been successful in bringing all caste groups together under the umbrella of Hindutva.
Amit Shah’s micro management
Realising that anti-incumbency may spoil its poll prospects, union home minister Amit Shah swung into action and his micro management replaced a few sitting MLAs replacing them with new ones. That worked in its favour. Although JP Nadda is a national president, it was Mr Shah who not only decided the poll management strategy but implemented it successfully.
BJP organizational network
The Bharatiya Janata Party has a wider and stronger organizational network in Gujarat than the Congress. BJP's organizational strength is huge in both rural and urban areas. Along with this, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh also has a strong foothold in Gujarat. A large number of shakhas are spread even to the rural areas of Gujarat. The Sangh did its expansion in Gujarat very carefully in the last 40 years.
As the Congress began to weaken, the organization Congress Seva Dal was adversely affected. BJP and RSS exploited the loss of Congress party’s organisational hold by consolidating its presence there. The BJP, of course, directly benefited from the RSS’s deep network. Aam Aadmi Party has not been able to succeed in leading campaigns and holding huge gatherings because its organizational network is at a very rudimentary level in Gujarat. AAP, which has opened its account, ate into Congress party’s vote that was another positive for BJP.
Congress's failure to capitalize on anti-incumbency
BJP has been in power in Gujarat for the last two and a half decades. Against this backdrop, Congress had an opportunity to take advantage of anti-incumbency.
But the Congress party failed completely in this. Whatever the achievements of Congress in 2017 were due to the party's hard work and proper strategy. However, both these factors were missing this time. BJP’s vote share crossed 53% while Congress’ came down to 28.6% as the latter failed to rejuvenate the party organisation and convince the voters that it can provide a formidable alternative to BJP.
Congress party’s campaign largely revolved around criticising Modi and Shah but failed to strongly put forward a plan B for Gujarat’s development.
Congress has not been successful in cornering BJP on the issues of government's failure to handle Covid, Morbi tragedy. Rahul Gandhi, who is currently leading the Bharat Jodo Yatra, addressed two rallies but otherwise no other senior leaders devoted time and energy that made the cadres directionless.
Priyanka Gandhi focused only on Himachal Pradesh. All these things made BJP's victory easy. Moreover, Congress failed miserably to revive and keep its traditional bastion the tribal areas in good shape. Here again, BJP’s outreach programme worked in its favour.
BJP Special focus on lost constituencies
BJP paid special attention to the constituencies where its candidates were defeated in the 2017 elections. Morbi, Surendranagar, Somnath and Amreli constituencies were won by the BJP in the 2012 elections. But in 2017, BJP was hit in this constituency. A strategy was devised to give special attention to these constituencies. The full strength of the party was deployed in these constituencies. This of course benefited and BJP was able to win these constituencies in this election.
