Mumbai: Vodafone Idea (Vi) may finally be seeing the first signs of a turnaround after years of financial distress. The Supreme Court’s recent decision allowing the government to re-examine the company’s adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues has brought cautious optimism to the telecom sector.
The verdict gives the government—already holding a 49 percent stake in Vi—the flexibility to explore a possible restructuring of dues that have long strained the company’s balance sheet. The move is widely seen as an effort to preserve competition in India’s telecom market and protect the interests of over 200 million Vi subscribers.
Experts Turn Cautiously Positive
Market experts have turned moderately optimistic following the ruling, noting that it could mark the beginning of a new phase for the debt-laden telecom operator. Several brokerages have revised their stance on Vi, upgrading their outlook from negative to neutral or high-risk positive. They believe the court’s decision offers the government space to design a sustainable financial plan that could include phased payments, restructuring, or relief on spectrum dues. Such steps, they say, are critical for ensuring Vi’s survival and restoring investor confidence in India’s third-largest telecom operator.
Impact on Stock and Sector Outlook
Vi’s share price surged nearly 10 percent to a 52-week high of Rs 10.57 following the verdict, before easing slightly due to profit booking. The stock has gained about 25 percent so far this year, outperforming broader indices. Experts say the ruling could have far-reaching implications for the telecom sector, reinforcing the government’s intent to maintain a '3+1' market structure — three private players alongside one public operator. Relief for Vi could also boost related companies such as tower providers, enabling fresh capital investments estimated at Rs 50,000–55,000 crore.
The Road Ahead
While optimism has returned, analysts remain cautious. The real challenge lies in how quickly the government translates the legal reprieve into concrete financial support. Any move toward easing AGR dues or facilitating new credit lines could be a turning point. Until then, the Supreme Court’s verdict offers Vi time — but not a guarantee — to secure its long-awaited revival.
