Mumbai: The stock markets are set for an event-heavy week, with several important domestic and global factors expected to guide investor sentiment. From inflation data to updates on the India–US trade deal, markets are likely to remain volatile and news-driven.
Inflation Data in Focus
In India, investors will closely watch retail inflation data scheduled for February 12. This data is important because it will be released with a revised base year of 2024, offering a fresh view of price trends in the economy.
This will be followed by WPI inflation numbers and foreign exchange reserves data on February 13, which will help investors understand wholesale price movements and the country’s external financial position.
India–US Trade Deal Developments
Markets will also track new details related to the India–US interim trade deal. Any clarity on the structure or timelines of the agreement could impact sectors linked to exports, manufacturing, and global trade.
Earnings and Global Cues
The corporate earnings season is still active, and several companies are expected to announce results. These earnings could lead to stock-specific movements, especially in mid-cap and large-cap stocks.
Globally, investors will keep an eye on key US economic data and the performance of the Nasdaq Composite, which has recently seen some weakness.
Geopolitical Risks Remain Important
Geopolitical developments, especially talks between the US and Iran, will also be closely monitored. Any negative outcome could raise concerns about possible military action, leading to higher volatility in global equity, currency, and commodity markets.
Rupee, FPI Flows and Market Outlook
The Indian rupee, which recently recovered from a record low after the India–US trade announcement, will remain a key indicator. Along with this, foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows will be watched to assess liquidity and risk appetite.
With the Union Budget 2026 and RBI policy decisions already absorbed, markets have entered a consolidation phase. Investors are now focusing on actual spending, capex execution, and policy implementation.
Nifty Technical View
Last week, the Nifty index moved sharply, hitting a high of 26,341 and a low of 24,679, before closing at 25,693.70, up 868 points. Technically, the index formed a strong bullish pattern.
Immediate resistance is seen at 25,800, while support lies near 25,500.
