Bhopal (Madhya Pradesh): As with every election, this time also, there has been rebellion in the BJP and Congress by those denied tickets. But, the surprise twist this election season is the willingness of parties like the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to accommodate these rebel candidates in the hope of securing a few seats and a percentage of votes that could help them maintain their status as national parties.
A study of past elections in Madhya Pradesh reveals that, on average, approximately 10 to 15 per cent of incumbent legislators switch their loyalty in every election, with only 5 to 8 per cent managing to retain their seats. However, there are exceptions. In 2020 by-poll, 19 out of 28 Congress lawmakers who switched to BJP won.
One such example is Congress MLA Sanjay Pathak, who managed to retain his seat in Vijayraghavgarh in the 2013 assembly election by a narrow margin of 950 votes against his rival Padma Shukla of the BJP. However, he resigned in April 2014 to join the BJP and won the August by-poll on the same seat with a significant margin of 53,397 votes.
Similarly, Congress's Narayan Tripathi, who switched to the BJP during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, retained his Maihar seat in Satna district during the 2016 by-poll.
In contrast to Sanjay Pathak and Narayan Tripathi's successes, BJP veteran Sartaj Singh, who joined the Congress in 2018 after being denied a party ticket, lost his Hoshangabad seat to the BJP's Sitasaran Sharma.
Both the BJP and Congress in Madhya Pradesh are grappling with rebellion as several candidates have been denied tickets. Some of these leaders have found shelter in regional parties, while others are planning to contest as independents.
To mitigate the rebellion within their ranks, both the BJP and Congress are making efforts to persuade rebels to withdraw their candidature. Although the Congress has attempted to accommodate a few leaders in its third list, the resentment among the rebel candidates remains.
Simultaneously, the BSP and AAP have extended offers to accommodate the rebel candidates by fielding them in their native constituencies. For instance, BJP's Sidhi MLA Kedar Nath Shukla has filed his nomination as an independent against the party's official nominee, Riti Pathak, a two-term Lok Sabha member from Sidhi.
In the Chambal region, former BJP MLA Rasal Singh, who was denied a ticket, has joined the BSP and will contest the seat. Singh, who is known to be close to BJP's firebrand leader Uma Bharti, had lost to Congress's Govind Singh in 2018. The BJP has fielded Ambrish Sharma in place of Rasal Singh.
Despite the BJP's efforts to persuade rebels who have announced their plans to contest the elections, some, like Bhind MLA Sanjeev Kushwah, who joined the BJP from the BSP last year, decided to contest as an independent. In Morena, former minister Rustam Singh and his son Rakesh Singh joined the BSP after the saffron party announced the candidature of Raghuraj Singh Kansana. Singh junior is set to contest the seat on a BSP ticket, posing a serious challenge to the BJP.
In Chachauda, BJP's Mamta Meena is now the AAP candidate. BJP's Maihar MLA Narayan Tripathi has formed the Vindhya Janata Party and plans to contest the polls, in addition to fielding 40 candidates from the party in Vindhya and Mahakaushal regions.
One of the most interesting incidents occurred in Morena district, where an upset Congress MLA, Ajab Singh Kushwaha, announced his intention to join the BSP after being denied a party ticket from the Sumawali seat. Following talks with the BSP, Congress decided to field him as the official nominee, and Ajab Singh quickly returned to his old party, leaving the BSP in a dilemma. Ajab Singh had won the 2020 by-poll, defeating BJP's Andal Singh Kasana.
Similarly, Congress's Kedar Kansana is set to contest the Gwalior rural constituency as an independent. On the other side, Kuldeep Sikarwar, whose ticket was changed by Congress, wasted no time in joining the BSP and secured the ticket within a few hours.
