India’s population is projected to reach 1.46 billion in 2025, maintaining its position as the world’s most populous country, according to the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) 2025 State of World Population Report released on Tuesday, June 10.
However, despite the rise in numbers, the report flags a critical demographic shift, India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has now dropped to 1.9, slipping below the replacement level of 2.1.
'Deep Inequalities In Fertility Trends'
While India is on track to peak at around 1.7 billion people before declining in about 40 years, the UNFPA report warns of “deep inequalities” in fertility trends across states, castes, and income groups. States like Bihar, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh continue to report high fertility rates, often driven by limited access to contraception and reproductive healthcare, and entrenched gender norms.
Meanwhile, in urbanised and more affluent states like Delhi, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu, many educated, middle-class couples are delaying or opting out of parenthood due to financial stress, job insecurity, and lack of childcare.
Report Calls for Reproductive Agency
Rejecting alarmist narratives around overpopulation or population collapse, the report also urged a fundamental shift in perspective. “This is the real crisis, not underpopulation or overpopulation,” the UNFPA stated. “The answer lies in greater reproductive agency, a person’s ability to make free and informed choices about sex, contraception and starting a family.”
A UNFPA-YouGov survey cited in the report revealed that 36% of Indian adults experience unintended pregnancies, while 30% report unmet fertility desires. Strikingly, 23% experienced both. Financial limitations were cited by 38% as a major obstacle, followed by housing constraints (22%), job insecurity (21%), and lack of reliable childcare (18%).
