The US intelligence community had reportedly anticipated how the Middle East conflict could unfold even before President Donald Trump authorised the initial missile strikes in February. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, then-intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard warned Trump days before he endorsed Israel’s war objectives that US assessments indicated eliminating Iran’s supreme leader could pave the way for a more hard-line government willing to pursue nuclear weapons.
The report said Gabbard presented intelligence assessments cautioning that a US-Israeli military escalation could prompt Iran, which was already at one of its weakest points in decades, to shut the Strait of Hormuz, potentially sending shockwaves through global energy markets.
She also warned that Tehran could retaliate by targeting US troops and regional partners, potentially testing Washington’s commitment to its allies and raising doubts over American reliability.
Military Leaders Also Raised Concerns
Other senior US military officials reportedly delivered similar warnings to Trump, highlighting the potential for American casualties, dwindling weapons supplies and preparedness challenges affecting an already overstretched military.
Despite these concerns, Trump proceeded with the military strategy pitched by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who portrayed the moment as an unusual chance to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities while strengthening Trump’s image as a peacemaker.
Six Months On, Earlier Warnings Resurface
Six months into the Iran war, the conflict Trump had pledged would conclude within six weeks remains unresolved, with several of the earlier intelligence warnings now reflected in the challenges facing Washington.
In Iran, the hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has strengthened its grip over the country’s political affairs while gaining control over commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The government led by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father Ali Khamenei, has shown little willingness to surrender.
Faced with the prolonged stalemate, the Trump administration is reportedly considering declaring victory if the crucial shipping passage is reopened, even without securing a nuclear agreement.
War Drains US Resources, Hits Trump Politically
The prolonged fighting has also reportedly depleted portions of the US ammunition stockpile. Trump has consequently adopted a more cautious approach, using sanctions and an extended blockade in an attempt to cripple Iran’s economy. He maintains that the pressure will eventually force the Islamic regime to submit.
The conflict has meanwhile inflicted damage on US military bases, reduced oil reserves and killed more than 3,000 people, including 18 American service members. The war is also becoming a political liability for Trump, hurting Republican prospects ahead of the midterm elections and pushing his approval ratings to their lowest level of his presidency.
Few former White House and national security officials now argue that securing an agreement capable of permanently halting Iran’s nuclear programme may be extremely difficult, undermining Trump’s hopes of emerging from the conflict as a historic wartime president.
"This was all predictable and predicted," Eric Brewer, a deputy vice president at the Nuclear Threat Initiative who worked in Democratic and Republican administrations, told the WSJ.
"You can draw a straight line from the fact that the war was launched without any clear political objective to the mishandled diplomacy in trying to end it," he added.
