New Delhi: In indications that New Delhi was not taking any chances over the developing situation in Iran, the Ministry of External Affairs issued an advisory asking all Indian nationals to leave Iran. The two-line advisory is the first time India has asked all its nationals to leave the country. MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal wrote on X that the government was closely monitoring the situation. “The Indian Embassy in Tehran is continuously monitoring the security situation and engaging Indian students in Iran to ensure their safety.” He added.
“In some cases, students are being relocated with the Embassy’s facilitation to safer places within Iran. Other feasible options are also under examination.”
The situation in Iran has deteriorated after President Donald Trump has actively encouraged the demonstrators against the Iranian regime. The US president, who said earlier this month that the US was “locked and loaded,” then told protesters, “HELP IS ON ITS WAY.”
Such remarks suggested that he could be prepared to intervene militarily in Iran. Iran expert Ambassador KC Singh, who has served in Iran, stated that recent developments suggested that it “seems like the US is prepared to intervene militarily, as the protests have failed to fracture/uproot the Iranian Islamic regime.” The former ambassador said the exit of the Israeli prime ministerial aircraft called the Wing of Zion, away from Israeli airspace was significant, as the same measure was taken before Operation “Rising Lion” which then began the 12-day war between Iran and Israel.
The other measure to note here was media reports stating the US had ordered some of its personnel to leave from its AlUdeid airspace in Qatar. Israel’s aims in the region is another factor. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s pressing need for political survival could hasten military action on Iran. Israel has been roiled by protests in recent days demanding that Netanyahu step down.
Singh points out, “Netanyahu wants to dodge these protests by creating a distraction abroad. He wants to do this by waving a fist at Iran." This war, should it come, will not be an easy one for the US or Israel. Iran has declared it will strike US bases across the region should it be attacked. Iran has ballistic missiles that are in the range of 500-1,000 kilometres, ensuring many bases are threatened. Also, as Singh points out, “Israel’s Iron Dome is not foolproof and cannot sustain a barrage of missiles fired at it.”
For India, the situation is grim. Senior diplomats point out that the country’s position of nonalignment should be able to help it navigate what happens next in Iran. India has an estimated 10,000 nationals in Iran, the majority of whom are students, who number around 3,000. Diplomats state that Indian missions in the region would already be coordinating together, and the government would most probably chalk out safe land routes from Iran to Armenia and Turkmenistan as was done during the 12-day conflict. It was from there the students were picked up and brought to India.
