Lucknow: The BJP's electoral machinery appeared to have everything going for it in Varanasi. Nine ministers from eastern Uttar Pradesh were assigned responsibility for the region, seven of the eight Assembly seats in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's parliamentary constituency are held by the BJP, and the party has a strong organisational presence. Yet, when the results of the teacher and graduate Legislative Council elections were declared, the Samajwadi Party emerged victorious in both constituencies.
The twin defeats have raised uncomfortable questions about the BJP's organisational effectiveness and its ability to translate political power into electoral support, particularly among educated voters.
The outcome is significant not merely because the BJP lost two MLC seats in Modi's parliamentary constituency, but also because the party had deployed considerable political resources to secure victory. Ministers, legislators and organisational functionaries were involved in campaigning, but their presence failed to translate into votes.
Ministerial Presence Fails To Deliver Victory
The BJP had considerable political representation across eastern Uttar Pradesh. In the Yogi Adityanath government, ministers Arvind Kumar Sharma, Ravindra Jaiswal, Hansraj Vishwakarma, Anil Rajbhar and Dayashankar Mishra 'Dayalu' represent different political constituencies in and around the region. Other ministers include Sanjeev Gaur from Sonbhadra, Girish Chandra Yadav from Jaunpur and Dayashankar Singh from Ballia.
Despite this formidable ministerial presence, the BJP failed to retain its influence among teachers and graduate voters. The results suggest that political representation and the deployment of senior leaders alone cannot guarantee electoral success when the party's local connect with a particular voter group is weak.
Candidate Selection Comes Under Scrutiny
The contrast was particularly striking in the teacher constituency, where the BJP's candidate, Dr Pramod Kumar Mishra, polled fewer votes than he had secured as an Independent in the previous election. The BJP's inability to improve Mishra's vote tally despite its organisational backing has put the spotlight on candidate selection.
Political observers believe the BJP may have relied excessively on its organisational strength and the influence of ministers instead of building a direct connection with the electorate.
Modi's Reduced Victory Margin In Varanasi
The BJP's defeat also needs to be viewed against the backdrop of the changing political equations in Varanasi since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Although Narendra Modi won the Varanasi seat for a third consecutive time, his victory margin fell sharply. He secured 6,12,970 votes against 4,60,457 polled by Congress candidate Ajay Rai, leaving a margin of 1,52,513 votes.
In 2019, Modi had defeated SP candidate Shalini Yadav by 4,79,505 votes. His vote share also declined from 63.62 per cent in 2019 to 54.24 per cent in 2024. The SP-Congress alliance helped consolidate opposition votes in the Lok Sabha election, with the SP supporting Ajay Rai instead of fielding its own candidate.
Samajwadi Party Strengthens Electoral Support
The latest MLC results indicate that the SP has managed to retain and expand its support among a section of voters who constitute an important and influential constituency.
The SP, meanwhile, has demonstrated that it continues to enjoy a strong base among teachers and graduates and can convert that support into electoral victories.
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BJP Faces Organisational Challenges
For the BJP, the bigger challenge is to understand why its formidable political presence, backed by ministers, MLAs and party machinery, failed to deliver in an election where the electorate was relatively small and could have been reached through direct campaigning.
