A cyclonic circulation that is set to develop into a low-pressure area over the southeast Arabian Sea and intensify in the next two days is expected to critically influence the advance of the monsoon towards the Kerala coast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday. The department, however, did not give a tentative date for the arrival of the monsoon in the southern state.
“Westerly winds over the south Arabian Sea continue to prevail up to 2.1 kilometres above mean sea level. However, because of a cyclonic circulation over the southeast Arabian Sea, the cloud mass is more organised and concentrated over the same area and there has been some reduction of clouds off the Kerala coast in the last 24 hours," the weather agency noted.
“Also, under the influence of this cyclonic circulation, a low-pressure area is very likely to form over the same region during the next 24 hours. It is likely to move nearly northwards and intensify into a depression over the southeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea during the subsequent 48 hours,” the IMD said.
The formation and intensification of this system and its near northward movement are likely to critically influence the advance of the southwest monsoon towards the Kerala coast, the IMD said.
Delay in Monsoon Onset Due to Cyclone?
In Mumbai, IMD chief Sunil Kamble said that the low-pressure belt could turn into a cyclone.
Rajesh Kapadia, founder of the blog ‘Vagaries of the Weather’, said: “Looking at the current situation, it appears that the cyclone might not affect the Konkan coast or Mumbai. It might move towards Pakistan.”
“As the cyclone moves away from Konkan, it will suck up all the moisture, and that will cause a delay in the monsoon. The onset of monsoon in Mumbai is likely to be after June 15.” Hot and humid conditions are likely to persist in Mumbai, he added.
Colaba recorded a temperature of 35° Celsius and Santacurz 34°C on Monday.