Maharashtra, the worst COVID-19 affected state in India, is projected to hit its peak of 1,43,181 active cases on August 1 and end of the infection is likely to be around September 30, suggests the ‘most likely’ model of the Times Fact-India Outbreak Report. However, as per the SEIR (Susceptible - Exposed - Infectious - Recovered - Susceptible) model, the state will see 1,31,832 active cases on July 29 and its end is projected as September 23.
Meanwhile, India will hit its peak of 6.45 lakh active cases on August 21 and the cases will decline by mid-October, indicates the ‘most likely’ model and the SEIR model projects that the country will see 6.98 lakh active cases on August 23 and will have a similar decline as the 'most likely' model.
Pune is predicted to hit a peak 27,688 active COVID-19 cases on July 29 and the end is likely to be around September 18, according to the 'most likely model'. However, the SEIR model suggests that the city will reach a peak of 15,564 active cases on July 16 and end around August 17.
"The report shows that Thane now is and will be the worst hit district in Maharashtra with more number of active cases and a higher peak than Mumbai. Thane is projected to hit the peak with 44,196 actives cases on July 26 according to the ‘most likely’ model and its end is projected as September 24," the report added.
On Tuesday evening, India's COVID-19 tally crossed the nine-lakh mark after 28,498 new coronavirus cases were recorded in the last 24 hours, while 553 more deaths due to the infection were reported, taking the total number of fatalities to 23,727.
As per the Health Ministry, there are a total of 9,06,752 coronavirus cases in the country out of which 3,11,565 patients are active cases.
A total of 5,71,459 patients have been cured/discharged while one patient has been migrated, the ministry said.
The Centre said that India's recovery rate stands at 63.02 per cent.
(With ANI inputs)
