Coronavirus Pandemic: Maharashtra vs India – what the numbers tells us so far?
BL Soni

The number of COVID-19 positive cases have reached 1,133,758 across the globe on 6th April 2020, with the addition of 82,061 new cases. In India, the number has reached 4,125 cases, with the addition of 603 cases today. Mortality rate for the World is 5.54%, while India is at 2.64%. Globally there are 5.798 deaths today, while India registered 24 deaths.

Maharashtra

The state accounts for 18.13% of India’s total COVID-19 positive cases, and 41.28% deaths, with an alarmingly higher mortality rate than the national and global rate, at 6.02%. The death toll reached 45 in the state today, with the addition of 13 new deaths. 110 new cases for registered, bringing the total number of cases to 748.

Coronavirus Pandemic: Maharashtra vs India – what the numbers tells us so far?
Coronavirus Pandemic: Maharashtra vs India – what the numbers tells us so far?

Daily Trends

India registered its first notable increase in COVID-19 positive cases on 3 March 2020, when 29 new cases were registered in a single day, bringing in the total to 29. In the last 10 days, a total of 3,397 cases have been registered, bringing the total cases in India to 4,125.

Coronavirus Pandemic: Maharashtra vs India – what the numbers tells us so far?

Maharashtra

Maharashtra registered its first case on 9 March 2020, and has seen significant increase in the number of cases in the last week, with an average of 80+ new cases added on a daily basis.

Coronavirus Pandemic: Maharashtra vs India – what the numbers tells us so far?

Statewise Distribution of Cases(Decreasing order of No. of cases)

Maharashtra stands first with 748 cases, while Tamil Nadu and Delhi are close with 571 and 503 cases respectively. Gujarat stands top with a mortality rate of 9.02%, followed by Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. All the states have at least one COVID-19 positive case registered, though there aren’t any deaths registered in over 13 states. Maharashtra accounts for 41% of the death toll, followed by Gujarat at 10%.

Coronavirus Pandemic: Maharashtra vs India – what the numbers tells us so far?
Coronavirus Pandemic: Maharashtra vs India – what the numbers tells us so far?

Daywise Distribution of New Cases

India registered its first COVID-19 Positive case on February 1, 2020, and the numbers have been flat till the end of the month, owing to no testing being done. The first notable increase was on the 3 March 2020, when 23 new cases have been registered, and since then an average of over 100 new cases have been added each day, reaching 4,125 positive cases. Maharashtra registered its first case on 9 March 2020, 37 days after the first case in the country, and since then an average of 25 new cases have been added each day, bringing the total to 748.

Coronavirus Pandemic: Maharashtra vs India – what the numbers tells us so far?

Datewise Distribution of Death

India registered the first death on 13 March 2020, and the death toll remained low till the end of the third week of March. The first spike was on the 28 March 2020, when there were 7 deaths registered in the country, and for the last several days, the death toll has been steadily increasing, with over 24 new deaths registered on 6 April 2020. Maharashtra registered its first death on 17 March 2020, with the current toll at 13 new deaths on 6 April 2020.

Coronavirus Pandemic: Maharashtra vs India – what the numbers tells us so far?

Districtwise Cases and Deaths in Maharashtra

Mumbai has the highest number of cases in Maharashtra, followed by Pune and Thane. Buldhan and Aurangabad have highest mortality rates at 20% and 14.3% respectively, followed by Thane, Mumbai and Pune. The only other districts to register deaths are Jalgaon and Amravati.

Coronavirus Pandemic: Maharashtra vs India – what the numbers tells us so far?

Age wise Deaths in Maharashtra

Most registered cases are in the age group of 21-50 years. The mortality rate increases with the age.

Coronavirus Pandemic: Maharashtra vs India – what the numbers tells us so far?
Coronavirus Pandemic: Maharashtra vs India – what the numbers tells us so far?

Sex wise Distribution of Cases and Deaths in Maharashtra

The incidence is higher in males as is the mortality rate. 63% of positive cases out of 635 are Males in Maharashtra, and males account for over 74% of the death to

Coronavirus Pandemic: Maharashtra vs India – what the numbers tells us so far?

Travellers vs. Contact

13% of the 635 cases are foreign travellers, 9% cases are a result of contact. About 8% cases had inconclusive results and we currently are waiting on the information on the rest 70%.

Out of the 84 travellers, most are traveling from UAE, USA, Saudi Arabia and Philippines. No cases from Italy or Iran or China are noted yet.

Initial new cases were driven by travellers, while the new cases over the last ten days were from non-travellers.

Sample Testing in Maharashtra

Over 15,472 samples have been tested in the State, and 4% of them showed a positive result for COVID-19 Government labs accounted for 2/3rds of the testing, while private labs contributed to over 5K tests.

Out of the 635 cases, 9% or 57 cases have been discharged on account of recovery or not requiring urgent care. 2% or 12 cases are categorized as critical and 5% or 31 cases are registered as death. 9% or 57 cases remain symptomatic.

Comparison with Other Countries

It took India 6 weeks to reach a Case count of 100, which could be a result of no-testing, and has taken only 4 weeks to reach a count of 4,125. USA and France, like India, had lower number of cases in the earlier weeks, but the numbers have been dangerously exponential in the last five weeks. USA currently tops the list with over 273K cases. Italy and Spain, on the other hand, had the exponential growth in numbers from the earlier weeks, and currently stand at 120K cases each.

In China, followed by Iran, the transmission rate was much higher, and the country has reached 64K cases in 28 days. The number of cases in the countries at this time were in the lower double digits, with Korea and Italy showing the first 100 cases. USA and the European nations have taken over 40 days for the first 100 cases, but they have outgrown the pace of China and Iran when they have registered an increase of 200x in the next 30 days.

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