Will Bihar Exit Polls 2020 be proved wrong?

Eventhough Bihar exit polls have predicted comfortable victory for Tejashwi-led Grand nearly three hours since counting has started, the Mahagathbandhan alliance of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Congress and Left parties is giving a tough fight to Nitish Kumar-led NDA.

This brings us to the question - Will the exit polls be proved wrong as they were in 2015 in Bihar.

In 2015, all predictions except one had given a comfortable majority for the BJP-led NDA and underestimated the Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance -- JDU+RJD+Cong).

Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are now at a neck and neck for the 243-seat-Vidhan Sabha.

According to the leads announced by the Election Commission so far, the RJD is leading on 46 out of 152 seats counted till 10 a.m., while the ruling BJP is trailing by securing lead on 40 seats.

The results are mostly from counting of the postal ballots and EVMs simultaneously at 1,06,515 polling stations across the state.

Most exit polls gave the RJD-Congress-Left alliance a clear edge over the JD(U)-BJP coalition. Here is what Exit Polls had predicted:

Chanakya-CNN News18 projected 180 seats for the RJD-led grand alliance, 55 for the NDA and eight for others. The majority mark is 122.

India Today-Axis My India poll showed the RJD-led block winning 139-161 seats, as against 69-91 for the NDA. It predicted 3-5 seats for LJP and also 3-5 for others.

The ABP-CVoter exit poll predicted NDA to get 104-128 seats and 108-131 seats for the opposition grand alliance. It projected Chirag Paswan-led LJP to get 1-3 seats.

A similar trend was predicted by Times Now-CVoter, which projected 116 seats for the NDA, 120 for the opposition alliance and a single seat for the LJP. It predicted six seats for others.

The magic number for the winner is 122 in the 243-seat Assembly. The Janata Dal United-led National Democratic Alliance and the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led United Progressive Alliance are the main contenders.

(To download our E-paper please click here. The publishers permit sharing of the paper's PDF on WhatsApp and other social media platforms.)

Free Press Journal