With the ruling BJP fiercely defending its throne and the opposition Congress desperate to avenge its 2017 humilation, a do-or-die battle is on the cards on February 14, when the two parties grapple with each other yet again in the Uttarakhand Assembly polls.
The largely bipolar politics of the state involving the two national parties, which have been alternately in power, has got a new twist this time with Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) also in the fray, offering itself as an alternative to the Congress and the BJP.
Given that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has lost some of his appeal as of late and that Muslims too may look for options other than the Congress has ensured fertile ground for the AAP to compete.
It is also likely that dominant-caste support for the BJP could weaken this time around given that BJP has been criticised for poor governance. Giving three chief ministers to the state within five years and bringing about political instability despite a big mandate is another factor that may eclipse the BJP’s chances.
Meanwhile, for the Congress, perpetual infighting may be one of the reasons why it is not favoured by many voters.
It has been over five years since 10 Congress heavyweights rebelled against Rawat and crossed over to the BJP in 2016, but the party still appears to be smarting from the jolt.
According to CSDS surveys, around 78% of Muslims voted for Congress in 2017, whereas in 2012 the number was 63%. This reflects the powerful anti-BJP sentiment prevalent in the state.
If AAP is able to capitalise on this sentiment it has a good chance of attracting Muslim voters.
Also, the party's decision to declare its chief ministerial candidate before the polls shows that it is trying hard to make the contest triangular.
Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and his deputy Manish Sisodia have made several visits to Uttarakhand in recent months, promising freebies to people and jobs to youngsters.
The party has declared Colonel Ajay Kothiyal as its chief ministerial face, eying the votes of the servicemen and hoping to cash in on his fresh, apolitical image.
(With PTI inputs)
