As Bihar awaits the final results of its two-phase Assembly elections, most exit polls have painted a grim picture for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj, the party he projected as a “third option” for the state’s voters. The second phase of polling concluded on Tuesday (November 11) with an impressive 67.14% voter turnout—higher than the first phase. Historically, such a surge in voting has often indicated anti-incumbency, but this time, the numbers seem to favour the ruling alliance.
According to multiple exit polls, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is headed for a comfortable victory, while the Mahagathbandhan is expected to finish a distant second. The projections show a significant gap between the two blocs, suggesting the opposition has much ground to cover before the results are declared on November 14.
If the exit poll trends hold true, Jan Suraaj may fail to make a notable impact in its debut election. Most agencies have forecast 0–5 seats for Kishor’s party in the 243-member Assembly, a disappointing outcome for the poll strategist-turned-politician.
Among the surveys, Dainik Bhaskar predicted 145–160 seats for the NDA, 73–91 for the Mahagathbandhan, and 0–3 for Jan Suraaj. Matrize estimated 147–167 seats for the NDA, 70–90 for the Mahagathbandhan, and 0–2 for Kishor’s outfit. People’s Insight gave the NDA 133–148 seats, while People’s Pulse placed it between 133–159 seats, both predicting poor numbers for Jan Suraaj. The majority mark in the Bihar Assembly stands at 122.
While Kishor’s campaign emphasised breaking the state’s traditional bipolar politics between Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar, the exit polls suggest that his “new alternative” has failed to strike a chord with the electorate. The real verdict, however, will come on counting day, November 14.
