Gandhinagar: Is Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking to recreate the Atal-Advani visual jugalbandi in governance by pitchforking Amit Shah as a replacement for the 91-year-old BJP veteran from Gandhinagar Lok Sabha constituency?
Prime Minister Modi is a great one for symbolism, acronyms and visual imagery. By replacing Advani with Shah, the obvious message sought to be sent is that the seat has been given to the national party president, as a tribute to the veteran leader who held it for seven terms.
The unsaid add on is that after completion of his second term as party chief, Shah may find a place in the cabinet as a number two, if the BJP returns to power at the Centre. The most enduring image of the Jan Sangh days is the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-LK Advani jugalbandi.
Both images, of course, are a take-off on the original one in the first political dispensation of independent India – Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and his deputy Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel. It would not be too far-fetched to suggest that Modi and Shah are trying to recreate the same magic. Modi trusts Shah implicitly and not many in the party enjoy this comfort level.
The combination first clicked during Modi’s chief ministerial days with Shah playing a crucial role, exercising proxy power by handling the crucial position of minister of state for Home. (Modi had himself kept the home portfolio). ,Imagery apart, Shah looked after Advani’s Lok Sabha campaign in the earlier years, though Surendra Patel was in charge of others matters connected with it. Thus, Shah knows the constituency like the back of his hand.
Advani was sitting MP from Gandhinagar from 1991 till 2019, barring a couple of years between 1996 and 1998. Under Advani, it came to be known as the safest seat for the BJP, despite the fact that it stretched from the state capital, Gandhinagar, through a flank of Ahmedabad, to its southern extremity of Sarkhej.
It was in the last Lok Sabha election of 2014 helmed by Modi, which brought him to power at the Centre, that BJP scored a perfect 26, bagging all the seats from Gujarat. In the aftermath of Advani, despite the veteran having lost relevance after the rise of Modi, things will not be all that easy for the BJP in Gujarat, more so in Gandhinagar constituency.
The party remained united for Advani and the traditional rivalry between the Shah camp and that of former chief minister Anandiben Patel is bound to surface again, more so since Shah is himself the candidate. In fact, Anandiben Patel was in Ahmedabad for a week during the period the state BJP was evaluating names of likely candidates from Gujarat.
Shah’s candidature also makes it abundantly clear that despite the boast of bagging all the 26 seats, the leadership is a worried lot. If the 2017 Assembly elections are taken as the yardstick, the BJP trailed in 9 Lok Sabha seats. This is the sole reason that the ruling party has weaned away six Congress legislators — by offering cabinet rank to two of them and an MOS to another.
By offering these inducements, the BJP hopes to consolidate its hold on the caste vote. Despite this, the support of the Patidars still eludes the BJP, Prime Minister’s own intervention notwithstanding. As things stand 2019 is not 2014 and there has been an erosion in the BJP vote bank with the Congress making major gains in the 2017 State Assembly elections.
Shah’s boast of bagging 150 seats proved hollow and the BJP was down to 99, its lowest ever score after Modi took charge in 2001, with the Congress taking it’s tally to 77 in a house of 182. Despite the spate of induced desertions from the Congress, which brought its tally down to 71, the fact is that Congress is expected to fare far better than last time when it had touched rock bottom.
This is also in fair measure due to the internal dissensions within the BJP wherein loyal leaders have been sidelined to reward turncoats from the Congress with plum posts. It is common knowledge that the traditional Shah-Patel group rivalries, as well as those created by the turncoats’ entry, is expected to make things lot tougher for Shah, though he may ultimately prevail.
In 2014 Advani had won the seat with a margin of more than four lakh votes. That is a fairly tall target for stepping into veteran Advani’s shoes.
