Will the BJP-led NDA cross the 400 mark, or will the India bloc prove to be an obstacle for PM Modi's hat-trick term? Will the Congress party be able to increase its seat tally this year, or with its leaders incarcerated, will the Aam Aadmi Party have its members in double digits in the lower house of Parliament? Will the ruling BJP be able to create a significant impact in southern states like Kerala and Karnataka, or will PM Modi's efforts go in vain in these states? The answers to all these questions will be clear on June 4, the counting day for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Before the first vote is polled, there is a curiosity among voters to know which way the wind is blowing. To satisfy the people's interest in knowing the possible outcome of the elections, various media houses and survey agencies come up with opinion polls. Opinion polls paint a murky picture of the voters' mood before the first vote is polled. However, on many occasions, the predictions of opinion polls and exit polls have been found to be nowhere close to the final results.
For the upcoming general elections, voting for the first phase will take place on April 19th. Before that, some agencies have released their survey results. Almost all surveys predict a victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party with an absolute majority. Let's explore the predictions made by surveys released in March and April regarding the outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections:
CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey 2024
The findings of the CSDS-Lokniti Survey published in The Hindu reveal that unemployment, inflation, and corruption are going to be major issues on which voters will base their votes. Despite the BJP's key campaign planks focusing on the inauguration of the Ram Temple and Hindutva, the survey indicates that these two issues do not have a high resonance compared to livelihood concerns.
However, the survey also shows that the BJP and its allies maintain a comfortable 12 percentage point lead over the INDIA bloc, with "leadership" and socio-cultural issues driving a higher preference for the ruling party.
TIMES NOW- ETG Research Survey
According to the TIMES NOW-ETG Research Survey projections, BJP is forecasted to secure 329-359 seats. Congress is anticipated to win 27-47 seats.
India TV-CNX Opinion Poll
In the India TV-CNX Opinion Poll, the projections suggest a significant lead for the BJP, with an expected win of 342 seats. The Congress follows with a forecasted securing of 38 seats. Meanwhile, the TMC is anticipated to secure 19 seats, and the DMK is expected to secure 18 seats.
News18's Mega Opinion Poll
According to News18's Mega Opinion Poll, the BJP is poised to lead with 350 seats, while the Congress trails with 49 seats. In a broader context, the NDA is projected to secure a formidable 411 seats, with the remaining 105 seats distributed among other parties under the INDI.A alliance.
ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll
In the ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll, the BJP is projected to secure 323 seats, while the Congress is forecasted to win 65 seats. The NDA alliance is expected to dominate with a total of 373 seats, leaving 155 seats for other parties within the INDI.A alliance.
2019 Lok Sabha Elections result
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP secured a landslide victory, winning a clear majority with 303 seats out of 543. Their alliance, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), clinched a total of 353 seats, reaffirming Narendra Modi as Prime Minister for a second consecutive term. The opposition Indian National Congress suffered a significant setback, managing to secure only 52 seats.
Elections for the 18th Lok Sabha will be conducted in seven phases, commencing on April 19, with counting scheduled for June 4.
