Exit Polls 2024: How Accurate Were Exit Polls in 2014, 2019 Lok Sabha Elections?

Exit Polls 2024: How Accurate Were Exit Polls in 2014, 2019 Lok Sabha Elections?

Today marks the last stage of the lengthy Lok Sabha election process, as votes on 57 seats spread across seven states and one union territory will be cast. The exit poll results will be shown on a number of TV channels after the vote.

Manasi KambleUpdated: Saturday, June 01, 2024, 02:47 PM IST
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Lok Sabha Election Exit Polls 2024 | File image

The much-awaited exit poll predictions 2024 will start coming in after 6.30 PM on Saturday, June 1, after the embargo period stipulated by the Election Commission ends. Apart from the Lok Sabha elections, assembly elections were also held in Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, and Sikkim. Lets look at exit polls in 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections

Exit polls: What Are They?

Exit polls are predictions made based on what people said as they were leaving the voting booth. An exit poll is a survey that is done using information from voters after they have left the polls to forecast the winners and their margin of victory. Even though the reliability of these surveys has frequently been questioned, their goal is to capture public opinion prior to the official results being declared.

It is difficult to know which exit polls to believe, if any, because of their widely differing predictions. Parties that are trailing in exit polls often argue that these polls are unreliable.

In contrast to political leaders' more analytical and upbeat assessments, these exit polls assess voter sentiment and a baseline trend or current. This sets them apart from poll pundits like Yogendra Yadav and Prashant Kishor.

The Indian Institute of Public Opinion conducted the country's first exit poll during the second Lok Sabha elections in 1957. The Centre for the Study of Developing Societies was contracted by the state-run broadcaster Doordarshan in 1996 to carry out exit polls across the country.

Exit polls: How Are They Conducted?

During an election, exit polls are used to determine the general sentiment of voters. Voters are interviewed shortly after they leave the polls during elections to determine the sentiment of the electorate.

Exit surveys are conducted by a variety of private organizations, both in-person and online, with varying sample sizes and techniques.

Exit polls are not precise forecasters; they are more of a general guide and frequently fall short of accurately predicting the final result. However, people frequently look to these predictions to get a sense of what might occur because of the excitement and anticipation surrounding the official results.

The Congress declared on Friday that it would not take part in any exit poll debates on television networks, citing its desire to avoid speculative discourse and disputes that are fueled by viewership.

Exit Polls: How Are They Released?

Exit polls are prohibited from being conducted during the voting process by the Election Commission of India, but they may be published 30 minutes after the last vote is cast.

Regulations state that results from exit polls cannot be made public before June 1, the last day of voting. The Representation of the People's Act, 1951, Section 126A, governs this regulation.

Where Can I Get Updates On Exit Polls?

India Today-Axis My India, News24-Todays Chanakya, News18-IPSOS, Times Now-VMR, India TV-CNX, ABP-CSDS, India News-Polstrat, and CVoter are notable organizations that disseminate exit poll surveys.

Exit Polls 2019: How Accurate Were They

The nation's sentiment was accurately captured by the exit poll forecasts in 2014 and 2019. Exit polls averaged 306 points for the NDA and 120 points for the UPA for 2019. The prediction was not as high as anticipated when the results were revealed because the NDA won 352 seats and the BJP only won 303. The then-UPA received 93 seats in Congress, out of 52 seats.

Exit Polls 2014: How Accurate Were They?

Despite their expectation that the NDA would win, many exit polls failed to predict the BJP-led NDA's landslide victory in 2014. The huge margin was the only thing the NDA was going to miss. The average of eight exit polls predicted that the UPA would win 105 seats and the NDA would win 283 seats. The UPA obtained 60 seats, the Congress 44, and the BJP 282; the NDA held 336 seats.

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