As the final and the 7th phase of the Lok Sabha elections 2024 will conclude on Saturday (June 1), all the attention will turn towards exit polls to determine the likely outcome of the elections, with results on June 4.
Before the completion of all seven phases, opinion polls will be carried out. These surveys will ask voters about their voting intentions and analyse the data to provide a snapshot of public opinion ahead of the actual results. In contrast, exit polls are conducted as voters leave polling stations on election day, inquiring about the candidate or party they supported.
Understanding the difference between opinion polls and exit polls is crucial:
1. Opinion polls are conducted well before the election, spanning days, weeks, or even months prior. These surveys aim to gather public sentiment on political preferences. On the other hand, exit polls are taken immediately after voters have cast their ballots, providing a real-time scenario of electoral choices.
2. Opinion polls use a random sample of registered voters to reflect the electorate's preferences. Exit polls, conversely, collect data directly from voters immediately after they vote, ensuring immediate and relevant insights.
3. The accuracy of opinion polls depends on the sample size and representativeness, often resulting in a larger margin of error compared to exit polls, which typically have a smaller margin of error due to their immediate nature.
4. Opinion poll questions typically focus on voters' planned actions, political party preferences, and sometimes their views on various policy issues. Exit poll questions are more straightforward, asking voters about the specific candidates they voted for and the reasons behind their choices.
In India, the conduct and publication of exit polls are regulated by law, specifically Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951. This legislation stipulates that no person shall conduct or publish exit polls via print or electronic media, or disseminate the results in any manner, during a period specified by the Election Commission.
