Pune: Like last year, this year too the summer will be hotter with heat-waves being predicted by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) in its seasonal outlook released on Tuesday. IMD forecast the seasonal outlook for the summer months of March to May.
While talking to the press virtually, SC BHan, head of Hydro and Agromet said that the maximum temperature is likely to remain above normal in north-west, central and north-east India while it is to remain normal to below normal in the peninsular area.
Heat waves in parts of India
He further said, "The heat-waves are likely to occur in the north-west and central India in the month of March besides having warmer nights."
Apparently, this is the second consecutive year, when the temperatures remain above normal. Attributing the high temperatures to the general warming up in the world, Bhan said, “the La Nina conditions will likely to remain neutral along with Indian Dipole and ENSO.
He explained, “ Since 2016, the IMD, has been issuing seasonal outlooks for temperatures over the country for both hot and cold weather seasons. The current strategy is based on the newly developed MultiModel Ensemble (MME) based forecasting system. The MME approach uses the Coupled Global Climate models (CGCMs) from different global climate prediction and research centers including IMD/MoES Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) model.
Highlights of seasonal outlook
· During the upcoming hot weather season (March to May (MAM)), above normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of northeast India, east and central India and some parts of northwest India. Normal to below normal maximum temperatures are most likely over remaining parts of the country.
· During the season (MAM), above normal minimum temperatures are very likely over most parts of the country except south peninsular India where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely.
· Monthly maximum temperatures for March 2023 are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country except peninsular India where normal to below normal maximum temperatures are likely.
· Above normal monthly minimum temperatures are most likely during March, 2023 over most parts of India except south peninsular India where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely.
· Enhanced probability of occurrence of Heatwave during March to May season is likely over many regions of Central and adjoining Northwest India. A low probability for occurrence of heatwave over Central India is likely during March 2023.
· The rainfall in March 2023 averaged over the country is most likely to be normal (83-117% of LPA). Below normal rainfall is most likely over most areas of northwest India, west central India and some parts of east & northeast India. Normal to above normal rainfall is likely over most parts of peninsular India, east central India and some isolated pockets of northeast India.
