Assam Exit Polls 2021: BJP likely to retain power, big setback for Congress

The state of Assam went to polls in three phases on March 27, April 1 and April 6 for its total 126 constituencies, and the counting of votes will be held on May 2. In the three-phased Assam Assembly Election, the state had recorded a total turnout was nearly 82. 04 per cent.

According to the data provided by the Election Commission, the voter turnout in the first phase was nearly 77 percent, in the second phase of polling it was 74.76 per cent, while a voter turnout of 82. 29 per cent was recorded in the third and final phase where the fate of 337 candidates, including state minister and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Hemanta Biswa Sarma in the Jalukbari constituency, was to be decided.

The BJP is contesting against a grand alliance of eight parties including Congress, which is contesting on 94 seats, and AIUDF which is contesting on 14 seats. Bodoland People’s Front, contesting on 12 seats, Communist Party of India (Marxist), contesting on 2 seats and Rupun Sarma-led Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) Liberation, Ajit Kumar Buyan’s Anchalik Gana Morcha, and RJD all contesting on one seat each, are also a part of the grand alliance.

Exit polls are typically based on feedback from a limited number of voters in select areas and none of them have a 100 per cent accuracy record. Here's a look at the predictions of the various agencies

NDTV:

The NDTV poll predicts that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to retain power in Assam. The BJP is expected to win 72 of 126 seats. The Congress is likely to win 53 seats.

India Today-Axis My India

The Axis My India has predicted 75-85 seats for the BJP-led combine in the 126-member assembly and 40-50 to the Congress-led opposition. The last assembly polls (in 2016) in Assam were held in two phases wherein the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies had won 86 of the state’s 126 assembly constituencies.

Times Now C-Voter:

According to the C-Voter survey, the BJP-led NDA is expected to bag between 53 to 66 seats and form a government with just two seats above the halfway mark. The UPA, on the other hand, is projected to win between 58-71 seats. The NDA's loss will be gain for the UPA in Bodoland, Brack Valley and lower Assam, where the latter may win 6, 9 and 12 seats more respectively than the previous tally.

Republic CNX:

As per the Republic-CNX Exit Poll, the party-wise projections is- BJP (60-66 seats), Congress (26-28 seats), AGP (10-14), AIUDF (11-13), BPF (5-7), UPPL (3-5) and Others (1-3). With BJP set to be the single-largest party, the NDA is projected to win 44.25% of the votes, while the Congress-led Mahajot (UPA) is projected to win 39.65% of the votes. The other political parties are likely to get 16.10% vote share.

ABP C-Voter:

According to ABP's C-Voter survey, the BJP-led NDA is expected to bag between 58 to 71 seats and form a government with just two seats above the halfway mark. The UPA, on the other hand, is projected to win between 53-66 seats. The last assembly polls (in 2016) in Assam were held in two phases wherein the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies had won 86 of the state’s 126 assembly constituencies.

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