Xi Jinping's third term: Challenges, opportunities and expectations for China

Xi Jinping's third term: Challenges, opportunities and expectations for China

Although China faces challenges at the moment, Xi Jinping has more opportunities to boost the country's position both economically and as a global political force.

RN BhaskarUpdated: Monday, October 24, 2022, 06:44 PM IST
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Chinese Communist Party leaders, inncluding President Xi Jinping, at 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China | PTI

China has voted as predicted. It ushered in Xi Jinping as head of the state and of the party for a third term. And, as might be expected from a country like China, the proceedings were orderly, and there were no unruly scenes.

But the third term for Xi could be extremely challenging for three reasons.

Finding a way around covid restrictions

First, China has refused to give up its Zero-Covid policy. That could mean more shutdowns, albeit brief. That will affect production and hence GDP. The reasons for sticking to this policy have been speculated upon. One reason could be that – as stated by the state-run media outlet China Daily, less than 86% of its elderly population has been fully vaccinated, and only around 68% has received booster shots. If true, China’s concerns are understandable. Opening its population to a Covid-infested world may mean loss of lives. Given China’s shrinking population, each life is extremely precious, much more than most countries in the world. Xi could not have afforded a rising death toll before his elections. So, will the zero Covid policy change now? Fingers crossed.

In the right geopolitical position at the right time

Second, China has made its position on the Ukraine war quite clear. It does not support war. But it does not support the way war was instigated by NATO and the US. This in turn has brought it closer to Russia, which in turn has given it cheaper and easier access to oil and gas. It may offer China access to water as well. Both should reach Central China by end 2024. Where there is water there is life. Where there is water and energy, expect an industrial revolution. China could witness a surge in industrialisation – this time in middle China – making it even more formidable and influential in the coming decade. Expect Xi to be focussed on these goals.

Might be good for India

Third, China’s rise also depends on finding new markets. One option – the best -- is India. But it has not put its eggs in one basket. It is looking at several Eastern economies – the Philippines, Myanmar, Indonesia and Bangladesh. Watch Xi’s moves as he tries to ease tensions with India. He will also seek to develop markets in Africa and Latin America. In fact, expect China to be the biggest contributor to poverty alleviation and education upgradation across the world in the next three decades.

Xi can amp up China's growth

If Xi plays his cards right, China could become even more incredible than it already is. Not everyone is expected to be happy with this. China has already flexed its muscles in creating a monetary system away from the US dollar. Those moves will continue.

The Ukraine war has fast-forwarded the world into pre-Ukraine and post-Ukraine. The post-Ukraine world may belong to Xi’s China.

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