New Delhi: The Bihar Assembly Election 2025 has turned into a high-stakes contest between Nitish Kumar’s NDA (National Democratic Alliance) and Tejashwi Yadav’s Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance). Voting to take place in two phases - on November 6 and 11, and the results will be announced on November 14. According to predictions coming from Phalodi’s famous betting market in Rajasthan, the NDA is expected to return to power.
NDA Projected to Win Majority
As per the latest odds in the Phalodi betting market, the NDA appears to be in a strong position. Bettors expect the ruling coalition to secure between 128 and 134 of Bihar’s 243 assembly seats, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 122.
Within the NDA, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), contesting 101 seats, is projected to win 66 to 68, while Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), contesting another 101 seats, may bag 54 to 56.
Grand Alliance May Fall Below 100 Seats
Meanwhile, the opposition Mahagathbandhan is expected to secure fewer than 100 seats. According to the market, the RJD–Congress–Left alliance could end up with 93 to 99 seats. Among them, RJD, contesting 143 seats, is predicted to win around 69 to 71, while Congress and the Left parties are expected to perform poorly—similar to the previous election.
Who Will Be the Next Chief Minister?
The Phalodi market is also betting on who will occupy the Chief Minister’s chair. Nitish Kumar is currently the clear favorite, with odds hovering between 40 and 45 paise - an indication that bettors see his victory as highly likely. Odds for Tejashwi Yadav and Prashant Kishor are not yet available.
How Betting Odds Work
In betting terms, lower odds indicate a higher probability of winning. For example, if Nitish’s odds are Rs 0.45, a bettor staking Re 1 would earn Rs 0.45 in profit if he wins. If the odds exceed Re 1, it generally means the chances of winning are considered lower.
Betting Is Illegal in India
It’s important to note that election betting is illegal under Indian law. Any form of gambling or betting without government authorisation—including political betting - can result in fines and imprisonment.
Phalodi’s Legendary Betting Market
Located in Rajasthan’s Marwar region, Phalodi is home to one of India’s most talked-about underground betting markets. From elections and cricket to stock prices and weather forecasts, almost everything becomes a betting event here. Despite being illegal, it continues to operate discreetly. Earlier this year, the Phalodi market accurately predicted the BJP’s win in the Delhi Assembly elections - now, all eyes are on whether its Bihar prediction will prove right on November 14.
