Teji Mandi: Chinese economy first to recover from coronavirus crisis
Teji Mandi: Chinese economy first to recover from coronavirus crisis
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The wait is getting over as the world reaches close to getting its first Covid-19 vaccine. Today, we discuss an event, significant from a global perspective and the one, that has come in the guise of being a good one but actually, it is quite the opposite.

Let's start with a little dose of positivity. With every passing day, the world is getting closer to what it has been dearly waiting for. After Moderna's positive commentary on the successful human trials of the Covid vaccine, another piece of good news has emerged from the UK.

The encouraging data from the initial Phase 1 trials of the University of Oxford’s potential COVID-19 vaccine, is expected to be released on July 16. The vaccine is already in Phase III where large scale human trials would be conducted. In an encouragement for the Indian pharmaceutical industry, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates sees it manufacturing Covid-19 vaccine not just for India but for the entire world.

Significant recovery from a global perspective:

In another piece of significant importance, the Chinese economy became the first one to recover from the coronavirus crisis. It posted a 3.2% growth in the second quarter after a record 6.8% slump in the first quarter due to the coronavirus crisis. Industrial production increased by 4.4% on the rise of export but domestic demand remains laggard as retail sales fell 3.9% during the second quarter.

The bounce back in the Chinese economy is significant as it highlights the ease across the global supply chain which came under severe stress during the pandemic.

Good news? Not exactly:

India's trade balance for June, for the first time since January 2002, was in surplus of USD0.8bn. It is not exactly a piece of good news though, as it has come on the back of huge import contraction.

Export contraction reduced to -12% YoY in June against -36% YoY in May. However, imports failed to see a recovery, contracting -48% YoY in June against -50% contraction in April & May. This is concerning as it suggests weakness in domestic demand while export markets are improving.

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