Indian markets could open mildly higher in line with largely positive Asian markets today and positive US markets on Monday, said Deepak Jasani, Head-Retail Research, HDFC Securities.
Markets are likely to commence on a firm note on the back of firmess in overseas indices, said Prashanth Tapse, Vice President (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd.. Helping sentiments will be April 4’s provisional trade data where both FIIs and domestic investors were net buyers of local stocks. India VIX, which measures the expected volatility in the market has slipped below 17.91 levels. "We believe, Nifty bulls are likely to shrug off ‘Inflation concerns’, ‘raging Russia-Ukraine war’ and most importantly, the hawkish Fed expectations on backdrop of elevated US bond yields. Nifty’s technicals are aggressively bullish with targets at its all-time-high at 18,607," Tapse said.
Benchmark Indices are expected to open on a positive note as trends on SGX Nifty indicates a gap-up opening with 89 points gain, said Mohit Nigam, Head - PMS, Hem Securities for Tuesday April 5. Asian Markets were trading mixed in the morning session on Tuesday with Straits Times gaining 0.6 percent, while Nikkei and Kospi down marginally. Wall Street's main indexes rose on Monday, boosted by mega cap tech and growth stocks and a surge in Twitter after Elon Musk revealed his stake in the company, amid cautionary signals in the bond market and talk of more sanctions against Russia over Ukraine. Also, oil price rise continues as uncertainty around supply persists. Big positive news for Indian markets is Morgan Stanley says “Bear Market rally” is over. Crucial support for Nifty 50 is 17,800 while Nifty may face some resistance at 18,400.
Nifty has broken out upwards based on the news of the mega merger. Nifty is now headed for 18,351 with improving breadth, added Jasani.
At close on March 4, the Sensex was up 1,335.05 points or 2.25 percent at 60,611.74. The Nifty50 was up 382.90 points or 2.17 percent at 18,053.40.
Asian stocks mildly high
Stocks in Asia were mildly higher Tuesday and crude oil climbed as investors evaluated the prospect of tougher sanctions against Russia for alleged atrocities during its war in Ukraine.
Japan's Nikkei traded flat, the S&P/ASX 200 index was 0.5 percent higher while South Korean stocks shed 0.2 percent. S&P 500 stock futures eased 0.08 percent and Nasdaq futures slipped 0.06 percentafter Wall Street rose on Monday, Reuters said.
Markets in mainland China and Hong Kong were closed for a public holiday on Tuesday.
US stocks close higher
The Nasdaq Composite booked its best day in more than a week on Monday, after investors snapped up technology and communications shares on Elon Musk’s disclosure of a large stake in social media platform Twitter Inc.
Twitter shares surged 27.1 percent on news that Tesla Inc Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk has built a 9.2 percent stake in Twitter Inc.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3 percent on Monday, the S&P 500 gained 0.81 percent and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.9 percent. Twitter shares surged 27 percent on news that Tesla Inc CEO Elon Musk has built a 9.2 percent stake in the micro blogging site Reuters said.
Traders also were monitoring the latest developments in Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Sunday that Western nations will impose additional sanctions on Russia in the coming days.
The Federal Reserve also remains a key focus, with minutes from the central bank’s March policy meeting due on Wednesday.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose 3.5 basis points to 2.409 percent.
Crude futures gain
Brent crude futures gained 1.6 percent to $109.25 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures were also up 1.6 percent. Gold prices ticked down, with spot gold easing 0.1 percent to $1,929.6 per ounce.
On Monday, crude oil settled on positive note as the US and Europe prepared to impose a fresh wave of sanctions on Russia for alleged atrocities committed by its forces against civilians in Ukraine. The possibility of new sanctions is offsetting the impact in the global crude market of a vast release by the US from the nation’s strategic petroleum reserves in a bid to tame prices, ease the burden on consumers, and peg back inflation. Other countries have said that they’ll also make oil releases.
Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd, said, crude oil prices are likely to remain volatile but in broader range i.e WTI crude oil $98-$107. Crude oil is having support at $100.20-$98.10 and resistance is at $104.90–107.50, In INR terms crude oil has support at Rs 7,550-7,420; while resistance is at Rs 7,920–8,120, Kalantri said.
Fuel prices hiked by 80 paise
Petrol and diesel prices were on Tuesday hiked by 80 paise a litre each, taking the total increase in rates in the last two weeks to Rs 9.20 per litre.
This is the 13th increase in prices since the ending of a four-and-half-month long hiatus in rate revision on March 22. In all, petrol and diesel prices have gone up by Rs 9.20 per litre.
Following the latest price revision, petrol in Delhi is now retailing at Rs 104.61 a litre while diesel is selling at Rs 95.87. In Mumbai, the price of petrol was held unchanged at an all-time high of Rs 119.67 per litre. Diesel price also continues to be at Rs 103.92 a litre, the highest among metros.
In Kolkata, petrol is being retailed at Rs 114.28 while diesel costs Rs 99.02 per litre. In Chennai, petrol is available at Rs 110.09 and diesel for Rs 100.18.
Bullion outlook
On Monday, gold and silver were settled on a flat to positive note as in the international markets it shown higher gain then domestic due to rupee strengthening. Gold and silver strength in the dollar and gains in the global equity market but after recovery in crude oil prices gold also recovered in the later evening sessions. Bullion prices gained amid talks of more economic sanctions including oil and gas on russia by the US and European countries.
Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd, said, Gold has support at $1917-1905, while resistance at $1938-1949. Silver has support at $24.20- 23.92, while resistance is at $24.65-25.00. In INR terms gold has support at Rs 51,220–50,980, while resistance is at Rs 51,880–52,085. Silver has support at Rs 65,850- 65,280 while resistance is at Rs 67,100–67510.
Trade deficit up
India’s trade deficit rose 87.5 percent to $192.41 billion in 2021-22 as against $ 102.63 billion in the previous year, the government data showed on Monday. While total exports during last fiscal year increased to a record high of $417.81 billion, imports too soared to $610.22 billion, leaving a trade gap of $192.41 billion.
Currency outlook
USDINR 27April futures contract extended its fall on Monday and tested its support level of 75.70. On the daily technical chart a pair is sustaining below its resistance level of 76.06. MACD is showing negative divergence on the daily technical chart and RSI is also fetching below 45 levels.
On March 4, at the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 75.77 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 75.42 and a low of 75.79. It finally ended at 75.55, registering a rise of 19 paise over its previous close.
Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd. said, As per the daily technical chart, we observed that a pair is sustaining below 76.06 and technical indicators are also showing weakness in the pair. Looking at the technical set-up, if a pair continues to sustain below 76.06; could test 75.55-75.35 levels. "We suggest selling in the pair around 76.00 with a stop loss of 76.36 for the target of 75.55-75.35," Kalantri said.
(With inputs from Reuters)
