The United States–Israel–Iran war in West Asia is expected to revive India’s imports of Russian oil. As part of a trade deal with the US, India had assured President Donald Trump that it would stop buying oil from Russia.
The US President had accused India of funding Russia’s war with Ukraine. As the North American nation is itself at war with Iran, oil supplies from the West Asian region are at stake.
If the war prolongs, as Trump has indicated it may continue for three to four weeks, India may look to buy oil from Russia to offset the spike in crude prices.
The crucial Strait of Hormuz has effectively been choked since the war broke out on Saturday last week. Though Iran is reeling under the dual offensive of the US and Israel, and other West Asian countries have expressed support for the two, the Shia-dominated country does not show signs of backing off.
With its top religious, political and military leadership killed in attacks, Iran has threatened to destroy any shipment passing through the Strait.
According to a report by Mint, about 50 percent of India’s crude oil imports and 54 percent of LNG imports were routed through the Strait of Hormuz in FY25.
The shutdown of Qatar’s LNG facility is another setback for India. The attack removed nearly 20 percent of the world’s LNG export capacity from the market.
According to a report by Oilprice.com, more than 80 percent of Qatar’s natural gas output is shipped to Asian countries, including China, Japan, India and South Korea. Europe also remains a major buyer under long-term contracts.
India imported just over 1 million barrels per day of oil from Russia in February, the lowest since September 2022. A large part of the shortfall had been met through imports from West Asia.
According to a report by Bloomberg, India had oil reserves sufficient to maintain supplies for only up to two weeks. As of late last week, 9.5 million barrels of Russian oil were sitting in Asian waters, and India’s foreign ministry was negotiating with the Trump administration to secure flexibility on Russian oil purchases, the report added.
