Mumbai: With just a day left for the final phase of seven-phase Lok Sabha elections on June 1, share markets await the outcome of the polling with bated breath. The election outcomes are going to significantly impact the market and it's dynamics. The results on June 4 will determine the economics and policies of the nation for the next five years, keeping millions of Indian investors on high alert.
The stock market on Friday, May 31, opened on a positive note, after falling for the past five days. The Sensex opened at 74,208.53, up by 0.44 per cent and the NSE Nifty at 22,568.10, up by 0.35 per cent.
Market Reaction to Possible Election Outcomes
In the Lok Sabha election 2019, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and its allies secured a majority in the election with 352 out of 543 seats, with the BJP alone winning 303 seats.
Some of the possible outcomes, according to various reports of the market experts and analyst are as follows:
1. Compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha election, if the BJP wins more seats this time, the financial markets are expected to react on a positive note.
According to reports, the possible market reaction could be that the equity market could rally by 4 to 5 per cent, with the headline indices Sensex and Nifty leading the charge. Moreover, the currency might appreciate against the dollar and there are chances that the bold yields could decrease.
As India awaits the election results, the financial markets remain in a state of heightened anticipation |
2. Another possible reaction to the election outcome and the financial market is BJP and its allies forming the government with fever seats, the market might remain volatile for a short term before getting stabilised, and rupee and bold yields maintaining a relative stability.
3. The third possible outcome of the election could be the opposition led coalition government forming the government and a surprising loss for the BJP, this could lead to market turbulence. There could be a sell off in the markets as investors react to uncertainty.
Satta Bazaar Predictions
Satta Bazaar, the shadow betting market, recently provided an indicator of the election outcome, predicting that BJP might secure around 290 seats, and the broader National Democratic Alliance (NDA) expected to secure 340-350 seats and the Congress party is projected to secure around 50-51 seats. Free Press Journal could not independently verify this report.
Bets and Odds: In the Satta Bazaar, the odds for the BJP winning 300-303 seats are 1:1, meaning a bet of Rs 1 would yield a profit of Rs 1. For the BJP securing 320 seats, the odds are 2.25:1, indicating higher risk but potentially greater returns.
When Will Exit Polls Be Announced?
The exit polls for the Lok Sabha Election 2024 will be released on June 1, Saturday, right after the seventh and final phase of the voting ends and Election Commission ban is lifted. The agencies that will release exit poll predictions include:
- ABP News- CVoter
- Zee News- Matrize
- India Today- Axis My India
- Times Now- ETG
- India TV- CNX
- Times Now- ETG
