All of a sudden, it is a big news-events season in Maharashtra's politics. In a dramatic manner, the estranged Thackeray cousins, as well as Maharashtra's biggest political family, the Pawars, have decided to unite. Uncle Sharad Pawar and nephew Ajit Pawar are planning to put aside their differences and join hands after two and a half years. These will be historic events. On Wednesday, the Thackeray cousins, who have been bitter rivals for almost 20 years, are likely to announce their reunion. They are in the process of entering into an alliance and fighting the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), as well as some other municipal elections such as Thane and Nashik, as a joint force!
The big victory that the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance scored in the 288 city council or nagar-parishad elections last week has put the BJP firmly in the saddle for the upcoming elections of 29 municipalities in Maharashtra. Some of the richest municipal bodies, such as Mumbai, Pune, Pimpri-Chinchwad, and Nagpur, will go to polls, and the BJP is now focusing on these elections by putting its heart and soul in them. In the city council polls of Maharashtra last week, the BJP-led Mahayuti won over 200 city councils out of the 288, with the BJP getting a lion’s share of 117! While on the one hand this has given the saffron party supreme confidence to face the BMC, PMC and TMC polls, on the other hand, it has brought the Thackeray cousins and the Pawar uncle-nephew duo closer. These are the two big events or news points that the state will see unfolding in the coming days.
Interestingly, the Pawar reunion will not be officially or formally announced. Instead, it is understood that Sharad Pawar will give a go-ahead to many of his activists and party workers to join Ajit Pawar's party. These people are likely to fill the vacuum left by dozens of Ajit Pawar's party activists who have left the NCP and joined the BJP in Pune district and some other parts of western Maharashtra.
Some political observers are pointing out how the Thackeray cousins’ reunion may galvanise and unite the Marathi-speaking population of Mumbai, and that may help Uddhav and Raj Thackeray to get a large number of voters, especially in areas such as central Mumbai's Dadar, Worli, Parel, etc., and some parts of South Mumbai, such as Girgaum, and suburbs, such as Vikhroli, Mulund, and Bhandup. But in the same breath, they point out how Raj Thackeray joining Uddhav will help the BJP in terms of consolidating the North Indian migrant votes and other non-Marathi votes in various parts of Mumbai. This is quite evident considering that the Congress party has now decided to fight the BMC polls alone. The Congress party cannot share the stage with Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, or MNS, as that will push its non-Maharashtrian vote bank away. This means that the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), an alliance formed in 2019 with Sharad Pawar's NCP, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena, and the Congress party, is now as good as dead!
The other factor in the equation is Eknath Shinde. There is a lot of talk about what will happen in Thane and Navi Mumbai. The BJP sees a challenge in Mumbai as Thackeray cousins are set to unite. But they do not see this as a problem in Thane and Navi Mumbai, where Uddhav Thackeray's party has been dented severely by the Shinde Sena. There is a lot of pressure from the local BJP unit in Thane about fighting alone so that most activists can be given tickets, while there is pressure from Delhi on the Maharashtra BJP unit to make some sort of an alliance with Shinde in Thane as well as Navi Mumbai. What will actually happen in Thane, which is Shinde's home turf, is still an open question.
Also, there is some talk about how the Marathi vote will matter in Mumbai. Many feel that Uddhav and Raj Thackeray's appeal to the Marathi-speaking population may have a limited scope this time because of Eknath Shinde's challenge and the fact that the voter percentage of the Marathi-speaking population has now gone below 30%. The BJP feels that the Thackeray cousin's unity will cause the North Indian community and other migrants, or the non-Marathi-speaking population, to galvanise behind the BJP, as Raj Thackeray is highly unpopular among the migrant population in the Mumbai suburbs.
What happens during the seat-sharing and ticket distribution is going to be crucial to all players, but for now one can say that the BJP seems to be firmly in the saddle to face the polls set to take place in January 2026.
Rohit Chandavarkar is a senior journalist who has worked for 31 years with various leading newspaper brands and television channels in Mumbai and Pune.
